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  • Danny B
    replied
    Possibilities with AI,,Blockchain

    A lot of mankind's problems are related to human nature. It is possible that AI will come up with some solutions to our problems.
    Robot taught itself never seen before chess moves in hours | Daily Mail Online
    "In those 240 minutes of practice, the program not only taught itself how to play but developed tactics that are unbeatably innovative — and revealed its startling ability to trounce human intelligence. Some of its winning moves had never been recorded in the 1,500 years that human brains have pitted wits across the chequered board."
    "On December 6, 2017, AlphaZero took over the chess world . . . eventually solving the game and finally enslaving the human race as pets."

    "Already top IT experts warn that deep-learning algorithms can run riotously out of control because we don’t know what they’re teaching themselves.
    And the programs can develop distinctly worrying ideas. A system developed in America for probation services to predict the risk of parole-seekers reoffending was recently discovered to have quickly become unfairly racially biased."

    Political assassination, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ove-opponents/
    Socrates and BTC, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...bitcoin-crash/

    A very good article on integrating blockchain contracts into the existing legal system.
    https://medium.com/humanizing-the-si...g-11a67c75d840
    Who knows what the limits / frontiers of AI are going to be?
    AI detects expressions to tell if people lie in court | Daily Mail Online
    Apparently, you Aussies have developed a taste for Mexican food. https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-t...o-australians/
    12/25 Homelessness in England rises by 75% among vulnerable groups – Guardian So, bring in more Pakis and Poles and Arabs.
    12/25 There’s one ledger – it’s called blockchain – GoldSeek
    12/25 Ten years in, nobody has come up with a use for blockchain – Hacker Noon

    12/25 ‘Bitcoin the perfect bubble, but blockchain a remarkable solution’ – Wired
    12/24 Technology behind bitcoin could transform the world – Guardian


    12/25 Trump is obliterating ISIS off the face of the earth – Town Hall
    12/25 Japan births plunge to lowest level ever recorded – Zero Hedge Surely, there is no connection to economic factors.

    Part 2 of the year in review at peak Prosperity, https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...-review-part-2
    Last edited by Danny B; 12-25-2017, 06:43 PM. Reason: Duh

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  • Danny B
    replied
    No jobs means no kids = no economy

    Armstrong says that everything runs in cycles. Not true.
    Interest rates are the lowest in 5,000 years.
    The birth rate is the lowest in history.
    The Amish have large families because they need the "free" labor of their children for their non-mechanized farms. In the rest of America, only 1% of the population works in agriculture. They have help.
    22 Billion Energy Slaves. "Today's energy supplies provide the equivalent of the work of 22 billion slaves." So says Colin Campbell, petroleum geologist and Peak Oil commentator. Actually the true figure may be closer to 122 Billion Energy Slaves.

    Agrarian societies had large families out of necessity. That necessity is no longer there. Women were pulled into the labor force by the demands of taxes, wars and parasites. This lowered the birth rate. The predations have become so great that wages are no longer adequate to support a family for many couples.
    The bankers are at the head of the line for the food trough. The boomers are next in line because they were promised support til death. Those boomers who can't get support must work til they drop. This leaves fewer job niches for millennials. The millennials are living in their parent's basement. Seeing no future, they opt out of society and lose themselves in "Second Life" and VR. In Second Life, they can escape and soar with the eagles. If Second life, VR and Youtube aren't enough, they might escape to drugs. This is slow suicide,,,,, as opposed to fast suicide by one of the many popular methods.

    The Polish government encourages the Poles to breed like rabbits (vid). BUT, there are 300,000 Poles in Britain attracted by employment possibilities. There is something seriously wrong with the Polish GOV if they promote reproduction in people who have no employment prospects. This is duplicated in most other developed States. They promote fecundity in jobless populations. To further prove their stupidity, several States are flooding their nations with with non-productive immigrants ,,,, to keep the productive economy going.

    Creating large families out of necessity is a thing of the past. Worldwide population growth is a thing of the past. Full employment is a thing of the past. To preserve the debt bubble, the printing presses are running in hyperdrive.
    Large families made sense before mechanization of production. Most of the people who do decide to have children now limit the number to two. Greece is a good example of what happens when the bankers get their way with a country.
    Shock birth rates shows Greeks may be dying out over IMPOSED ...
    https://www.express.co.uk › News › World
    Apr 29, 2017 - Greece population birth rate crisis GETTY. Roughly a fifth of women born in the 1970s will remain childless.


    This is very much in line with the desires of VHEMT but, it is very bad for the bankers.
    https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Volunt...ction_Movement
    There is a dawning perception that you must have people to have an economy. "They" could cover the land with robots and produce great abundance but, for what? Stocks and bonds are claims on future productivity. What happens if there is no future consumption?

    Many decades ago, the English did not allow a couple to get married until, they had a place to live. This was done to cut down on procreation of people who had inadequate support. We are in a new era where reproduction is an expensive headache and many avoid it. This is not some cyclical thing.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Raging against the long, long night

    China is hard at work to build their new prosperity. Otherwise known as the new Silk Road. They want to get lots of new people working and earning AND consuming. They have the right idea; get lots of people out of the fields,,, into the cities and, consuming like crazy. As nutrition gets better,,, as child care gets better, people become more intelligent.
    Intelligent people have fewer children, preferring to attain quality over quantity.
    Here are 3 articles that you can skim to get a good picture.
    https://econimica.blogspot.com/2017/...ead-ahead.html
    https://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/...of-global.html
    https://econimica.blogspot.com/2017/...orph-into.html

    Population (ex S. Africa) is falling everywhere. Our debt-money system is fracturing from the CBs trying to compensate for falling consumption with rising money printing. China has the fastest falling labor force. China has the fastest printing presses.
    The demographic crash will wipe out budgets everywhere. Japan has given up on pretence and is printing with wild abandon. The FED claims to have shut down the QE machine but, we don't hear a word from the PPT and ESF. China has recently created more debt that the EU, FED and BOJ put together.

    Here is a page with American debt year by year. https://www.thebalance.com/national-...events-3306287
    Here is a page with births, year by year. https://www.infoplease.com/us/births...rth-rates-year
    SOMETHING always precipitates a crash. Recent history clearly shows that our approaching date with poverty will bring a big shrinkage in the birth rate. The unfolding police State and control systems won't inspire people to bring children into an Orwellian world. Our fast approaching poverty won't either. Ditto for the approaching race wars.
    Our current system that demands eternal growth will crash into the reality of a shrinking population and crashing consumption. In the face of runaway automation, there isn't anything "good" that the State can do.
    The unfolding police State is hardly likely to inspire confidence in couples.

    Kunstler writes about, "The Long Emergency". By it's very (current) nature, the State can't possibly inspire confidence.
    The corporatocracy brings us rising fascism. The State brings us a socialist control system. Socialism is anti-family. The results are unfolding. When the markets crash, the demographic crash will eclipse everything else.
    "He said that budget will “be a doozy” because of a projected $1 billion hole created by need to appropriate close to $1 billion to the pension funds on top of the $1.2 billion appropriated in the current budget."
    http://www.themoreheadnews.com/news/...596a9b60b.html
    We will see lots more of this.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    $21 trillion buys a good fleet

    The day before the cruise missile hit the Pentagon, Rumsfeld announced that $2.3 trillion was missing. 49 workers from the Naval office of budget and management were working on tracking down that missing money. Their offices were in a part of the Pentagon that had recently been "hardened" to resist attack. 48 died. There was also a similar investigation in building 7 with the FBI. That was all destroyed when building 7 was "pulled".
    Recently, it was reported that $21 trillion was missing. It can't actually be missing. It is unaccounted for. We all know where it went.

    "A new space corps would represent more of a bureaucratic reshuffling than a major expansion of the Space Command, which currently employs about 36,000 people and is headquartered at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado. " Air Force Space Command > Home
    " Other top defense officials have argued that the Pentagon is already making a renewed effort in space and are lobbying Congress to instead provide more funding." How much more funding?
    "During a briefing with reporters last week, Air Force Chief of Staff General David Goldfein said the military’s goal was to “normalize” space as a war-fighting domain"
    "In an official statement of policy, the Trump administration said the creation of a space corps was “premature” and that the Defense Department was still assessing the possibility as one option in a broader reorganization."
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-corps/536124/

    OK, so, we have a space fleet and they are trying to bring it out in the open. The missing $trillions paid for it.
    Where did those $trillions come from? The "black" section of the budget wasn't big enough.
    Everybody looks at the reported movements of money to & from the Treasury and FED. Nobody sees reports from the President's working group on markets or the Exchange stabilization fund. The PPT and ESF just move liquidity wherever they want.

    Ben Franklin mentioned to the European bankers that the colonies just printed whatever amount of money the productive economy needed. That brought us a war from The European bankers. Adolph Hitler created money, as needed for workers and the productive economy. He too got a war from the European bankers. Churchill made it very clear that WW II was banker's war.

    The "missing" $21 trillion was most likely spent INTO the productive economy for the development of the American space fleet.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-corps/536124/
    https://truedisclosure.org/news/sola...esent-day.html

    Both Benjamin and Adolph produced money for the productive sectors of the economy. This didn't sit well with the speculators. The Pentagon is soon to be audited. It is doubtful that the funding for the space fleet will ever be itemized.
    EDIT:
    Gen. David Goldfein to be second Jewish US Air Force chief - Haaretz
    https://www.haaretz.com › World News › Americas
    Apr 27, 2016 - Gen. David Goldfein. U.S. Air Force. Gen. David Goldfein will become the second Jew to command the U.S. Air Force.

    Meet the Jew who may bomb North Korea - Israel National News
    www.israelnationalnews.com › All News › US & Canada
    Oct 23, 2017 - Head of US Air Force General David Goldfein is responsible, among other things, for the fleet of bombers that may soon strike rogue state.
    Last edited by Danny B; 12-24-2017, 07:50 PM. Reason: A bit more info

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  • Danny B
    replied
    Year end roundup

    Everybody is writing their year end thoughts. Kunstler is especially dark. Others are bogus BS to the n'th degree. Here is one that covers everything and is pretty much accurate.
    https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...17-year-review
    I'm going grocery shopping and will write more,,, after you read this.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Canada,,,, cyber crime,,, lacking baselines for accurate projections

    Canadians spending nearly as much on marijuana as wine, shows report
    12/23 Canadian housing affordability hits 27 year low – Zero Hedge
    Alberta (Tar Sands Capital Of The World) Invests In 600 MW Of Wind power
    Trudeau says Canada's oil sands must be phased out - Phys.org

    12/23 Spending up far more than real income: per capita income stagnates – Mish No problem. We'll just spend til we default.
    12/23 Bitcoin plunges 45% in 5 days… how low will it go? – SRSrocco Report
    12/22 Panic selling turns into scramble buying as cryptocurrencies recover – ZH
    12/23 France bans fracking and oil extraction in all of its territories – Guardian


    Good article on the unfolding powers of cyber crime.
    "Hiscox and Cybersecurity Ventures calculated that cybercrime cost the global economy $450 billion in 2016; they predict this number will reach $6 trillion in the next three years.
    Lloyd's of London notes a single cyberattack can trigger $53 billion in economic losses, and pegs average losses after operating systems have been hacked at upwards of $29 billion.
    While most people probably would regard terrorism as the greatest threat to the United States – say an attack on par with 9/11 – in fact Visual Capitalist cites a poll stating that cyberwarfare is the most threatening scenario at 45% compared to terrorism at 26.3%.
    Ahead of The Herd

    My brother is a senior IT development guy in a company in the beltway. I sent him a curious link. He immediately replied that he was changing ALL his passwords. I don't know enough to understand what all the fuss is all about. But, here is the link.
    https://medium.com/4iqdelvedeep/1-4-...e-3131d0a1ae14
    Here is a VERY off-the-wall article, https://renegadeinc.com/he-died-for-...-not-our-sins/
    Here is a link to a long PDF book that is NOT POLITICALLY CORRECT. It does have a bearing on the economy of today.
    https://katana17.files.wordpress.com...-roth-1934.pdf

    Kunstler writes a review of the previous year. We (one sector) are living a life of deluded wealth brought on by credit creation. Kunstler writes about some aspects of the delusion.
    Beyond Cynicism: America Fumbles Towards Kafka’s Castle | The American Conservative
    Credit creation is the obverse side of the wage-crash coin. The bankers and corporatocracy expect to have full control of everything after the default cascade. They have the cameras and microphones and the guns,,, not to mention the lawbooks. They have already demonstrated their short-sightedness and stupidity.
    The American birth rate fell so, the southern border was left open to avoid the population crash that befell Japan. We had a big influx of people who mostly had a good work ethic and a Christian background. Japan and the Soviet Union both showed that you can't have a shrinking population AND a growing market.
    The Eurocrats formed the European union as a political union WITHOUT a debt union. They were warned at inception that it had NEVER previously worked. The whole thing will come crashing down. They were warned and went ahead anyway.
    Hoping to copy the American experiment with importing workers from Latin America, the EU bombed MENA to chaos to supply a high number of willing refugees. This served American (israeli) interests as well to fracture ALL neighbors laying the groundwork for the unfolding "greater israel".
    Equating muslim and black immigrants from States that have almost zero cohesion with immigrants from Latin America, was a big mistake. Much of the trash coming from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Somalia will NEVER contribute anything to productivity and growth. Instead, they will contribute to social and economic breakdown.
    The Eurocrats made a painfully stupid move and have created a populist revolt. They assumed that erasing all democracy in Europe would allow them to dictate any terms that they desired. Poland and Hungary are at the forefront of the revolt that will eventually bring down all their twisted dreams.
    TOO many of the "elites" are too distanced from the common people to judge / project what the outcome of their actions will be. Many of the politicians are former lawyers. Lawyers seem to believe that; you just pass a law and, everybody will comply. (Armstrong)
    Automation is a new pressure just come on the scene. There is no baseline history on which to base projections of the outcome. Previously, mechanization had replaced people who used a lot of brawn. This was addressed many years ago. The Luddites. NOW, machines are replacing people who used their brains rather than their brawn. Armstrong's program, Socrates has NO baseline for integrating this new paradigm, NOR, the paradigm of reproductive choice. (Birth control).
    I think that Socrates will be blind-sided.
    Last edited by Danny B; 12-23-2017, 09:23 PM. Reason: sbelling

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  • Danny B
    replied
    Kunstler,,, power tied to gold

    Grab a snack and read a bit more from Kunstler. Make sure that you are seated.
    The Darkest Hours - Kunstler
    Here is a VERY interesting article on the how and why of gold manipulation.
    "Please keep in mind that the control of the gold price by the deep state financial elite is not some parlor game that they play for their enjoyment; it is an absolutely critical requirement in keeping the fraudulent fiat currency counterfeiting scheme from collapsing. There are literally trillions of dollars at stake, and the entire counterfeiting scam could and almost certainly would implode if gold “went Bitcoin.”
    Gold EFPs: Absolute Proof That Paper Gold Is A Fraud | Zero Hedge
    It's a long article but it gives a lot of information about the power structure aside from the info on gold.

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  • Danny B
    replied
    Forcing people to work, while employment is disappearing

    85% of People Hate Their Jobs, Gallup Poll Says - Return to Now
    https://returntonow.net/2017/09/22/8...lup-poll-says/
    Sep 22, 2017 - Eighty-five percent of workers worldwide admit to hating their jobs when surveyed anonymously, according to a Gallup poll released last month. “Many people in the world hate their job and especially their boss,” the report says. Since 2000, Gallup has polled millions of employees from nearly 200 countries "

    All of us have things that we would rather do than go to a job that we don't care for. We don't want to be told what to do all day.
    Looming poverty forces us to go to work. Suppose everybody were given a universal basic income? We wouldn't show up for work. Due to increasing automation, hundreds of millions CAN'T show up for work.
    Not So Great: 94,983,000 Americans Not in the Labor Force in May
    https://www.cnsnews.com/.../not-so-g...abor-force-may
    Jun 2, 2017

    Unemployment is at 21.7%. http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-...d&t=1512743154

    "A landmark 2017 study even looked at the impact of just industrial robots on jobs from 1993 to 2007 and found that every new robot replaced around 5.6 workers, and every additional robot per 1,000 workers reduced the percentage of the total population employed by 0.34% and also reduced wages by 0.5%. During that 14-year period of time, the number of industrial robots quadrupled and between 360,000 and 670,000 jobs were erased. "
    09/15/2017: AI could make full-time work a thing of the past
    https://www.marketplace.org/.../0915...merican-work-m...
    Sep 15, 2017 - 09/15/2017: AI could make full-time work a thing of the past.

    The Incredible Shrinking Paycheck - Forbes
    The Incredible Shrinking Pay Raise: Wages Can't Keep Up With Inflation
    https://www.cnbc.com/id/48130116

    Purchasing power keeps falling but, the economy MUST grow to service debt. This is papered over by the CB creating new debt-money for the State. The debt money is locked into the upper loop because the ONLY transmission mechanism is, wages. The transmission mechanism for the more well-off is, stock dividends.
    The Wages for a big part of the middle class have disappeared and / or gone stagnant. The income for the upper middle class depend on dividends. ALL of these people depend on income from renting out their money. Stock dividends were previously dependent on earnings from sales.
    As the wage base crashes, this is seen as falling sales, profits and dividends. This eventually shows up as falling dividends to the upper middle class. The join the ranks of the non-spenders from the lower middle class. The PTB pump up stocks to keep the upper middle class from joining the lower middle class. Valuations are at 2.7 times the historical norms. (Hussman) Armstrong says that valuations will continue to climb. As the Euro fractures, European capital joins Chinese capital in a flight to the safety of American markets. International capital flows are key to most markets.
    The tax reform bill will help the banks and screw most people. Apparently, Trump is counting on the new tax laws to attract capital HERE.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...n-europe-asia/
    I still can't see the DOW at 40,000 but, who knows?

    The PTB try to keep us impoverished to keep us working. At the same time, automation is reducing the need for workers. The State is printing up money to try to keep things moving along.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    liquidity searching for a home,,,doomers

    The CBs created endless "liquidity" and, it had to find a home. It couldn't do this in gold. The gold supply increased about 2% per year. About the same rate that the economy grew. This rate would be fine for the producing economy but, FAR too limited for the needs of the speculators. The speculators were first in line for free money and, 2% just wouldn't do. To keep pressure off of gold, "They" created paper gold in 1984. This allowed an ever-expanding "supply" of gold for the speculators. The money supply expanded at about 7% per year. The extra 5% was what was added on as currency / price inflation over the years.
    Since wage inflation always lagged price inflation, the speculators were always ahead of the game. The recent liquidity expansion has gone into hyperdrive. Everything it touched inflated and then, died. EVERYTHING except for gold, depends on consumption, in the FINAL analysis.

    Gold was artificially inflated like everything else. The recent hyperdrive-press action required something else to absorb the excess liquidity. Enter cryptoS There are so many of them that they can absorb an enormous amount of liquidity. BUT, that is also their weakness.
    12/22 Crypto carnage continues: bitcoin down $5,000 from record highs – Zero Hedge
    12/22 Is this why Charlie Lee sold his litecoin? – Tom Luongo
    12/22 Bitcoin: birth of the world’s first “teal” equity? – CME Group
    12/21 Bitcoin arbitrage spreads are collapsing – Zero Hedge

    Crypto really does NOT lend itself to arbitrage and speculation.
    12/22 Cryptocurrencies could be ‘just mining the public’ – CNBC
    12/22 Equity mania reaches fever pitch – Zero Hedge THAT always happens just before the crash.

    12/21 Steinhoff disintegrates – Zero Hedge First (sort of ) Many.
    12/21 Subprime auto defaults are soaring – Bloomberg
    12/21 UK’s Warren Buffett says it’s time to sell stocks and bonds – CNBC
    12/22 Treasury yields poised to surge – Silver PhoenixJust imagine shooting a flare gun inside a fireworks factory.
    12/22 BOJ keeps policy steady, Kuroda dismisses talk of early exit – Reuters NO QT for Japan. The presses will run until they melt into the earth.
    Russia just bought lots of gold. Stockman says to buy gold, David Stockman Warns "Gold Is The Only Safe Asset Left" | Zero Hedge

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  • Danny B
    replied
    Productivity paradox

    "Decade after decade, medium-skill manufacturing/office jobs have been disappearing, and in response, the unemployed have found new employment in new low-skill service jobs. People unemployed by machines still require income, so they end up finding what they can get. At the same time, they are competing against others doing the same thing (as long as the labor market remains involuntary) and thus people are bidding down their own wages and taking any job they can get in a race against the machines.
    This also serves to make investments in automation less attractive. As an added bonus, the jobs that are being automated are more productive jobs than most of the jobs being newly created. Cheaper human labor and an increasing number of low productivity jobs together then result in a “paradoxical” deceleration of productivity growth. Long story short, the middle of the labor market is disappearing. That’s the reality, and it’s been happening for decades."

    "A landmark 2017 study even looked at the impact of just industrial robots on jobs from 1993 to 2007 and found that every new robot replaced around 5.6 workers, and every additional robot per 1,000 workers reduced the percentage of the total population employed by 0.34% and also reduced wages by 0.5%. During that 14-year period of time, the number of industrial robots quadrupled and between 360,000 and 670,000 jobs were erased. And as the authors noted, “Interestingly, and perhaps surprisingly, we do not find positive and offsetting employment gains in any occupation or education groups.”
    https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/...VyZDWKTjJf.png

    This is a very important article. I have been hammering away on the idea that almost all of out problems result from automation.
    https://medium.com/basic-income/the-...t-8b95f9bad71b
    Every time that consumption falls, producers employ more robots to make up for lost margin.
    "solutions like unconditionally guaranteeing everyone a basic income as a rightful productivity dividend if people are actively being unemployed by growing productivity and the discussion is framed as a future danger to our social fabric instead of a clear and present danger."
    The corporatocracy doesn't care about the social fabric.
    "If we look at recent history, each successive downturn has resulted in the permanent shrinkage of the labor market. Peak labor appears to have already occurred back in 2000."

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Fate of the EU,,, dollar moves,,,growing tiger

    A couple notes from Armstrong on cooling.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...nter-20172018/
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...one-suspected/
    Excellent article on electronic money.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...is-electronic/
    "Electronic Money. I researched this 3 or four years ago and came up with, .003 physical currency vs the rest as Electronic Money. I later stumbled across an article on the same subject by an economics professor who put the ratio at .0003 physical."

    The European Union is / was a BAD system that tried to combine the rise of socialism with the power of the corporatocracy. It is soon do go down in flames. How will this affect the view of the dollar?
    "The more political chaos in Europe, the crazier the markets will become in 2018 driving the dollar up until the monetary system cracks wide open."
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...days-numbered/
    Keep in mind that; as the dollar rises, dollar-denominated debt will become ever-more difficult to service.

    " China has to keep expanding. According to the World Bank, over the next three years, about 35 percent of global GDP growth will come from China, twice as much as the U.S. and four times as much as India. When China sneezes, all developing markets catch a nasty cold."
    " Of the more than 870 state entities listed on the mainland, 20 percent require at least 6.6 years of operating profit to pay off their net borrowings."
    "In October, Beijing issued its first sovereign dollar bond since 2004."
    What will happen to these "dollar bonds" when capital flight raises up the value of the dollar?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/art...christmas-gift

    There is speculation that the CBs will buy crypto currencies. https://dailyreckoning.com/central-b...ptocurrencies/ There is also speculation that CBs will quash private crypto to make way for CB / State controlled crypto.
    Armstrong says that the tax cut will be a boon to small business.
    Big business says that the tax savings will go straight to the piggy bank.
    https://theintercept.com/2017/12/19/...ck-republican/

    American big oil needs at least $50 a bbl. to make any money. Saudi produces for $4. Saudi is in deep financial trouble and trying to sell off a stake in the national oil company. Venezuela has the biggest reserves and, is in deep financial trouble. Iran and Iraq want to sell as much as possible. Discipline will soon break down and oil will fall again. This won't be good for the frackers.
    https://dailyreckoning.com/oil-prices-soon-drop-50/

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  • Danny B
    replied
    When the panic starts

    The CBs buy every dip so, there are never any honest market signals. Investors are trying to predict the next downturn but, not having much luck. Here are a couple of technical articles that boil down to; there are some indicators but, we aren't really sure.
    How the Asset Bubble Could End ? Part 1 |
    How the Asset Bubble Could End ? Part 2 |
    The CB models assured the bright people at the helm of the printing press ship of State that trickle-up would take over for stimulus after a couple of years. The CBs jumped on the tiger and spoon fed it. The interest load and debt bubble have grown the tiger enormously. The CBs can't jump off the tiger because it is VERY hungry and looking around for more. Fittingly. the Chinese tiger is the largest.

    This article has some good graphs on energy price and consumption. The main party of the article is some bogus discussion of the use of coal.
    The Depression Of The 1930s Was An Energy Crisis | Zero Hedge
    "I consider the Figure 1 (below) to give the most compelling picture on the absurdity we have arrived to. It presents the yield of the US 10 year treasury bond, the yield of Italian 10 year bond and yields of junk bonds of European and US companies as well as the QE:s of the ECB and the Fed. It implies that the default probability of an average European junk-rated company is smaller than that of the US government. This, naturally, is just absurd "
    NOT according to Armstrong
    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b0df0de8b060fb
    BTC news, https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great...crash-of-2018/

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  • Danny B
    replied
    China liquidity down = world liquidity down.

    Best Of The Web

    Irrational complacency – Algebris
    Doug Kass’ 15 surprises for 2018 – Zero Hedge

    Read them both. NOTHING there.
    China did not want to get steam-rollered by the West. They used mega-tons of credit to launch the country forward. OVER AND OVER, they acknowledge the need to rein in the credit bubble. OVER AND OVER, they make an attempt. PBOC liquidity is also flowing into global credit markets. They have "printed" more than the FED, BOJ and ECB combined. China has the fastest falling population in the labor force. China has extremely low wages. China plans to switch over to a domestic-consumption model and get away from an export-driven model. They have a falling population of 16--62 year olds and terrible wages. Needless to say, domestic consumption can't possibly carry them forward. Every time that they try to trim back the growth of the credit bubble, they make a deep cut in the economy.
    Reality strikes and they turn up the printing presses another notch.
    In Dramatic Reversal, China Gives Up On Deleveraging Pledge | Zero Hedge
    "Which led to the conclusion that "in the end, whether China's deleveraging is premeditated or accidental doesn't matter: a few more month of China's credit impulse collapsing and it will be too late to prevent a hard landing, first in China where real estate was, is and will be the most popular and important asset, and then the rest of the world. As we explained in "Why The Fate Of The World Economy Is In The Hands Of China's Housing Bubble", to understand what the world economy will do in 6-9 months you only have to follow China's debt creation and housing market today."
    "In other words, China has just admitted - for the second time - that not only does it have an unprecedented debt addiction, but it will never be able to get over it. Which is a problem for the country which according to the IIF has over 300% in total debt to GDP."
    "Unfortunately, China no longer has a way out, as an official involved in policy discussions told the Wall Street Journal: “Let’s face it, it’s not realistic to reduce leverage when the whole economy relies on banks for financing."
    China just doesn't have enough organic growth to escape from debt-fuelled growth. If you look at their wage structure and their one-child policy, that isn't a complete surprise.
    The East has a low-wage structure that does not support organic growth and the West has a falling wage structure that also does not support previous levels of consumption. This is papered over with credit growth. MUCH of it emanates from China.

    The bankers are trying to save the bankers. The State is trying to save the State. The only way that they "can" do this is by squeezing the productive sector. The more that they squeeze, the lower the economy goes. All that is left is the printing press. That only "works" if they have ZIRP or NIRP.
    The CBs have been creating QE in a round-robin fashion. If China slows down, another CB(s) will have to take up the slack. The BOJ has gone from nose-bleed levels to the hard vacuum of outer space. The ECB can't get past the Germans. The FED does not plan to throw in the towel.
    Once again, global capital flows have proven to be the key.
    Globalism requires that all States work together. With the underlying belligerence of Pox Americana, globalism remains impossible.

    Armstrong said that interest rates are going to go screaming up higher. Most commercial rates are tied to the 10 years treasury. The FED claims that it is going to reduce it's holdings of Treasury paper. That means that OTHER buyers must be found. FED GOV is going on a huge cash-raising spree.
    OTHER buyers are going to want higher interest rates.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...oing-to-pay-up

    Keep in mind that the Treasury makes various claims as to who is buying their paper. About 90% of their claims are LIES.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    No wages = no economy

    America lost it's post-war job niche to low-wage competitors. Is that so hard to visualize and understand? Implementation of computers and CNC machines reduced the need for many workers. As the remaining jobs became more complex, the average applicant needed to be smarter and more competent. This was at the same time that our schools were dumbing-down and indoctrinating the young.
    Low IQ students had / have almost no opportunities. High IQ immigrants put a squeeze on the upper levels of the job market.
    ALL of this is logical. All of it is related to market forces so, it isn't any surprise. Things were made worse by NAFTA and other agreements but, they just sped up the process.
    The falling population of 16---62 year olds caused falling consumption. Again, no surprise. Cheap-peak-oil caused a general rise in prices because energy is the master resource. The gutting of the productive sector to maintain the profits of the speculative sector isn't anything new.

    Downward pressure on wages from China, India, et al must be added to the downward pressure from domestic manufacturers.
    "Listen to any central banker and they’ll share their worst fear in two words, “wage inflation.” Wages have been pretty much frozen for 40 years. Manufacturers move production to a place where labor is cheap and,, try to sell their stuff where prices are high. After a lag of several years, they find that the places with high prices are flat broke. The CB pumps in "money" to try to keep consumption going. They pump it into the speculative loop and,,, wait for trickle down to wages.
    Computers are superior for information handling. Humans are slow and mistake-prone. The world is awash in MILLIONS of bureaucrats who add nothing to the economy. They shuffle papers to each other for a bloated paycheck. They are the ones who will be hit the hardest by the default cascade.

    This hot money sloshing around the upper loop finds it's way slowly into the lower loop in the form of price inflation.
    "As a result, every data release that shows wage pressures are subdued leaves central bankers scratching their heads. " 100 million people of working age are NOT in the labor force and,,, the CB can't understand why workers are not demanding higher wages.
    "Indeed, for some, pricing power remains an-out-of-reach luxury. As such, some producers have had to turn to the debt markets to shoulder increasing costs."
    No kidding,,, we can't afford their stuff so, they borrow money to keep afloat.
    The article goes on to state that there is little inflation in consumer prices but, increasing price inflation in producer prices. The producers aren't able to pass this on because the consumer is broke. So, they borrow money to make up the difference.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...ion-is-at-hand
    The corporatocracy tries to maintain it's former margins from the good times. Back when jobs paid a decent wage. That time is long gone so, they try to further squeeze the worker to preserve profit margins. Did it never occur to companies that workers must have purchasing power to,,, purchase?

    "3. The stock market's year-long levitation while the real-world economy decays is a perverse counter-correlation that reflects the widening divide between those enriched by the asset bubbles and those left further behind."
    "4. In the midst of a supposedly resurgent U.S. "recovery" in its 9th year of wonderfulness, the opioid epidemic has killed tens of thousands and crippled hundreds of thousands of lives and families, yet the federal government, supposedly the most powerful force on the planet, is frozen in a decades-long law-enforcement/Drug Gulag obsession, blind to the Big Pharma Cartel that has created and fuelled the epidemic as a means of reaping billions in profits."
    So long as the campaign contributions flow in, that is all that matters.
    "9. While The Deep State has entered the common lexicon, all the media chatter does little to illuminate the internecine battles within the Deep State that are playing out as shadows cast in the Russian Collusion Kabuki theater."
    oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Jedi Mind Trick: The Disturbing, Destabilizing Abnormal Is Now Normal

    The new tax bill will push us further off the cliff. Not everyone is ignorant of this fact. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.21fd97d6f505

    "People are subservient to Government. There will be no solution to the human condition until the opposite is true: Government must always be subservient to the People. Bad Government leads to crash and burn.

    This inversion of priorities is readily seen in the entire tax “reform” effort. It is all about maintaining Government revenue streams. Slavery of the People is acceptable. Until the enslavement of man is terminated, there is no change in the trajectory of civilization."
    "Thomas Paine recognized this inversion process and opens his Common Sense with it. He explained that government believes it is the country and not the people. Once that takes place you see the results."
    "Government always begins as a benevolent entity to further the common good. The problem emerges with a Republican form of government. Once you politically elect a “representative” of the people, the system is doomed"
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...sion-delusion/
    Hemingway wrote a short story, The Short Happy Life of Francis Macomber. It looks like this same idea will apply to BTC.
    12/19 A Bitcoin.com founder has sold all his bitcoin – GATA
    12/19 EU plans to prohibit anonymity for bitcoin transactions on exchanges – GATA
    12/19 Korean bitcoin exchange files for bankruptcy – Zero Hedge
    12/19 Germany joins French-led moves to regulate bitcoin at G-20 level – Bloomberg
    12/19 SEC suspends trading in crypto company which soared to $11 billion – Zero Hedge

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    BTC crackdown,,,overpaid writers

    "NSA mathematicians detailed “digital cash” two decades ago

    What evidence supports this notion? First, take a look at this document entitled, “How to make a mint: The cryptography of anonymous electronic cash.” This document, released in 1997 — yes, twenty years ago — detailed the overall structure and function of Bitcoin cryptocurrency.

    Who authored the document? Try not to be shocked when you learn it was authored by “mathematical cryptographers at the National Security Agency’s Office of Information Security Research and Technology.”
    https://www.naturalnews.com/2017-12-...-currency.html
    "the smart money has always known the regulators were coming."
    "The third thing is now that the regulators are in motion, they aren’t going to stop moving. They’ll keep going until they’ve created a world pretty much like the one we have. They are the forces of the status quo: not of evil but of stasis. BTC represents nearly violent change."

    "BTC is anonymous or pseudonymous, and zcash can blind transactions in any system with a gateway. Yep, you bet, right on. So there’s the battle lines for the next five years: zeroprivacy vs. zcash. Use and abuse of zksnarks. Authoritarian vs. libertarian, all on very similar tech base. "
    https://medium.com/humanizing-the-si...y-b99110480ff0

    "there is absolutely NO historical evidence that cutting taxes, without offsetting cuts to spending, leads to stronger economic growth."
    “Bad debt is the root of the crisis. Fiscal stimulus may help economies for a couple of years but once the ‘painkilling’ effect wears off, U.S. and European economies will plunge back into crisis. The crisis won’t be over until the nonperforming assets are off the balance sheets of US and European banks.”
    Aha, therin lies the problem. A lot of those "nonperforming assets" are people. The CB pumps in liquidity to keep employment going.
    Global QE,, remember, this is only what is admitted to. https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/c...0b7e1fe0d1.png
    Total system leverage / GDP https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/c...5644ce0cb7.png
    "The complexity of the current environment implies years of sub-par economic growth "
    Could that possibly be related to sub-par population growth?

    "Also, while it is believed that “tax reform” will fix the problem of lackluster wage growth, create more jobs, "
    "While Japan has entered into an unprecedented stimulus program (on a relative basis twice as large as the U.S. on an economy 1/3 the size) there is no guarantee that such a program will result in the desired effect of pulling the Japanese economy out of its 30-year deflationary cycle."
    When will these boneheads admit that a deflation in population brings a deflation in economic activity?
    "A decline in savings rates to extremely low levels which depletes productive investments" We're broke and have no savings. The CB jumps in and says; we'll just print the money to replace the missing savings.

    "The lynchpin to Japan, and the U.S., remains demographics and interest rates. As the aging population grows becoming a net drag on “savings,”
    Side noteHere's how many Americans have nothing at all saved for retirement
    https://www.cnbc.com/.../heres-how-m...ll-saved-for-r...
    Jun 13, 2017 - In fact, the vast majority of Americans have under $1,000 saved and half of all Americans have nothing at all put away for retirement. "Nearly half of families have no retirement account savings at all,"

    https://www.investing.com/analysis/t...rica-200273958

    " Nomura avoided the more widely discussed - and more probable scenarios such as the Italian elections, US Impeachment risk, North Korea conflict, which it covered in its event risk radar series, and has instead selected topics that have not been as widely discussed."
    He gives 10 possible "Grey Swans" I'm not impressed.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...ns-events-2018

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