No announcement yet.

Economic pressures

  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Danny B
    When will the bond market wahe up?

    2/14 January retail sales post biggest decline in 11 months – CNBC
    2/14 Total US household debt soars to record above $13 trillion – CNBC

    Looks like $13 trillion just isn't enough to keep things rolling.
    2/15 Dutch plan to build giant solar power farm – SBS News
    2/14 First Solar beats gas with solar and batteries – Greentech Media

    Wait, what about my oil shares?
    2/14 Draghi faces an impossible task to weaken the euro – CNBC The currency war seems to be on the front burner now.
    Currency war: Trump’s games pose threat to European economy – Spiegel

    2/15 US economy is an ‘accident waiting to happen’ – CNBC There was nothing accidental about the FED inflation.
    2/15 The next commodities supercycle is getting started – Casey Research Not on your life.
    2/15 Shorts in SPDR junk bond ETF surge to highest level since 2010 – Bloomberg Junk bonds are crashing fast. The shorts smell blood.
    2/14 Big reset looms for corporate credit market – Wolf Street Yes, from the fat and into the fire.
    2/14 U.S. public debt surges by $175 billion in one day – SRSrocco Report
    SO, why didn't I get a check fro $503?

    "Deficits will probably reach $1 trillion in the current or next fiscal year, almost double what the Congressional Budget Office had projected less than a year ago for 2018."
    “Never in modern times,” says analyst Sven Henrich, “have we seen tax cuts being implemented and spending increased with debt to GDP north of 100%.”

    "Global Debt Crisis II Cometh

    – Global debt ‘area of weakness’ and could ‘induce financial panic’ – King warns
    – Global debt to GDP now 40 per cent higher than it was a decade ago – BIS warn
    – Global non-financial corporate debt grew by 15% to 96% of GDP in the past six years
    – US mortgage rates hit highest level since May 2014
    – US student loans near $1.4 trillion, 40% expected to default in next 5 years
    – UK consumer debt hit £200b, highest level in 30 years, 25% of households behind on repayments"
    "When you look at the figures you realise there is an air of inevitability of what is around the corner. If the last week has taught us anything, it is that markets are unprepared for the fallout that is destined to come after a decade of easy monetary policies.

    Global debt is more than three times the size of the global economy, the highest it has ever been"

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Stpckman,,,, the wind & the unwind,,,

    My eye is still giving me trouble and the posts will be short. You can skip a lot of reading by just looking at what David Stockman wrote. The FED seems to think that the unwind is controllable.

    QT is the "unwind". The Treasury bond market is the "wind".
    "Less than two weeks ago, the United States Department of Treasury very quietly released its own internal projections for the federal government’s budget deficits over the next several years.

    And the numbers are pretty gruesome.

    In order to plug the gaps from its soaring deficits, the Treasury Department expects to borrow nearly $1 trillion this fiscal year.

    Then nearly $1.1 trillion next fiscal year.
    And up to $1.3 trillion the year after that.

    This means that the national debt will exceed $25 trillion by September 30, 2020.

    Remember, this isn’t some wild conspiracy theory. These are official government projections published by the United States Department of Treasury.

    This story alone is monumental– not only does the US owe, by far, the greatest amount of debt ever accumulated by a single nation in human history, but $25 trillion is larger than the debts of every other nation in the world combined."
    2/13 China January new loans surge to record 2.9trln yuan – Reuters Ah yes, it requires huge new loans to roll over the old loans.
    2/12 Chinese Central Bank governor warns again of financial crisis risk – Smaulgld Like Sleeping Beauty, he has finally awoken.

    2/13 Stock market’s massive moves not seen since Great Recession – SafeHaven
    2/13 These bonds should make ECB hawks apoplectic with rage – Bloomberg

    Wait til this really gets rolling. "Apoplectic" will be a watchword.

    Stockman, "That get's us to the market's misplaced confidence that after a moderate-sized hissy fit on Wall Street, the Fed and other fellow-traveling central banks will back-off from normalization and QT. The fact that the head of the New York Fed and Goldman plenipotentiary at the central bank, Bill Dudley, pointedly referred to last week's two-day $4 trillion stock plunge as "small potatoes" is perhaps a hint of things to come."

    Contra Corner » Swan Song Of The Central Bankers, Part 1: Last Week Wasn’t An Error

    Armstrong writes about contagion in counter-party risk.
    "Chinese Government that focuses on connectivity and cooperation between Eurasian countries, primarily the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the ocean-going Maritime Silk Road (MSR). "
    As opposed to the American business plan of blowing up everybody in sight to steal their resources.
    The default cascade will freeze up all credit. The Russians don't intend to get caught with their pants down. suppose that this implies a crash of the BIS.. VERY interesting

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    slipping into democracy/insolvency

    ALL GOV is socialist because all GOVT. does redistribution. All democracies eventually crash because the people learn that they can vote the whole pie for themselves. All politicians buy votes with promises. They eventually promise more than the taxpayer can afford. We were originally given a republic. The 17th amendment chipped away at that. When women were given the vote, the results became more touchy-feely and less businesslike. Women are a lot more likely to live in a wishful dream world.

    We lost the republic and became a democracy. Politicians bought election money with promises to the rich,,, and then bought votes with promises to the poor. Supporting the rich costs 10 times what it costs to support the poor. The State told the people, "don't worry about old age and infirmity, we will take care of you." "Don't worry that you have no skills and are unemployable. we will give you a job."

    Because of the great wealth arising from the post WW II economy, America was able to make good on those promises. That has all ended and the printing press is all that is keeping things going. Trump plans to spend $trillions on infrastructure. The FED plans to stop monetizing Treasury paper.
    No politician has had the balls to take away all the perks that earlier politicians have passed out.
    2/13 Trump wants giant cuts to housing, food stamps and health care – WaPo
    I'm guessing that Trump will demand that GOV shut down all the benefits because the FED will no longer monetize Treasury paper. That should light a fire under the FED.

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Impossible decision,,, short version

    I hurt my eye and can't stand light,,, especially looking at the screen.
    Here are a few links.

    Fed will have to choose between rates and stocks, Sprott says | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

    "But that truth means the system as managed by the political elite is dysfunctional. Yet the elite refuse to yield any power."

    1517, removing the financial remora,

    Almost every bit of the money supply is electronic debt backed by nothing. Paper money is a rarity. The NSA created the blockchain and bitcoin. They are collapsing because they can be stolen too easily and now, the energy cost is far too high.
    The SDR didn't fly because it is a piece of garbage... unlimited creation. Notice that nobody steals SDRs.
    BTC was an attempt to acclimate us to non-CB electronic money.. That lump of garbage just won’t fly.

    The FED is about to crash and, they are making one last desperate attempt. to get us out of the crashing dollar and, INTO their latest creation.

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    The fallout from the rising 10 year note

    Mnuchin is at the Treasury. When Powell became head of the FED, the stock market dropped 1175 points. Now, we see more drops. Maybe the FED, PPT and ESF are NOT going to prop things up. There were initial indications that somebody came in and cut the losses in half on the first day. It remains to be seen just how much control Trump, Mnuchin and Powell have over the Exchange Stabilization Fund.
    "a background description is given on the USDept Treasury's enormous slush fund in the Exchange Stabilization Fund which has size in the multiple $trillions and which has a function in financial rigging of every major Western market, and whose core might be $3 to $5 trillion worth of Saudi recycled petro surpluses, with primary function being the fabrication of fake USTreasury Bond demand via the Interest Rate Swap derivative machinery during the absent foreign bond demand"
    GOLDEN JACKASS.COM - The Golden Jackass Knows Gold, Currencies & Bonds"

    Everything is based on the 10 year Treasury note.
    ” If the 10-year yield gets above the 2013 high of 3.04%, a bullish long-term “double bottom” reversal pattern would be completed, opening the door for an eventual rise toward the 4.75% area."
    "When the yield bumped up against the downtrend line before, as happened in 1987, 1990, 1994, 2000 and 2007, bad things happened on Wall Street."

    "There's a not-so-quiet rebellion going on in the bond market, and it threatens to take 10-year yields above 3 percent much faster than expected just a few weeks ago."
    2/09 Asia’s rich must exit crowded trades, cut leverage – WaPo That might cause a downturn. What if China does not want a downturn?
    2/09 China’s central bank releases nearly 2trln yuan in temporary liquidity – CNBC Right,,, temporary. They have never been able to withdraw liquidity.
    2/09 Moody’s threatens to downgrade US debt – ETF Daily News That won't make them very popular in the District of corruption.
    2/09 Stock and bond investors paying for Fed’s dangerous experiment – Zero Hedge The FED did it ALL for them and now, it has run it's course.

    Venezuela has a negative feedback loop in oil production,
    The Venezuelans are all trying to leave,

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Graphs of wages and productivity

    Some graphs that tell the story very well.
    We're at the bottom,
    We're always working harder,
    Part of the reason for our loss,
    The FED can inflate the money supply far faster than we can make gains in wages.

    We went off the gold standard and this allowed to FED to print up lots of faux money for all the money renters. In 1971, we got a swift kick in the wallet, https://philebersole.files.wordpress...oductivity.png
    We "survived" by just borrowing more,

    The more that we were squeezed by monetary inflation, the harder we worked and the more we borrowed. The upper loop is trying to keep the game going. The printing has gone parabolic. It is SUPPOSED to stave off defaults in the lower loop. The real result is; price inflation resulting from the monetary inflation is bringing even more defaults. Diminished consumption caused manufacturing to do even more automation.
    The defaults are rising in spite of the efforts at the FED to hold it all together.

    2/09 European banks could soon hold bitcoin, admits ECB president – CCN
    These feces-for-brains bankers are ALREADY holding SDRs. What happened to the new magic-money, the SDR?

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Interest rates and the worst-case scenario

    Reverse wealth effect, oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Before You "Buy the Dip," Look at This One Chart
    2/09 Volatility shock wave has wiped $5.2 trillion from global markets – MarketWatch
    2/09 Asian stocks tumble after US markets sharply sell-off – CNBC
    2/09 Junk bond ETFs sink to lowest since 2016 – Bloomberg
    2/09 Market tumble wipes out almost $100 billion from world’s richest – Bloomberg

    The fear of rising interest rates is spreading, PressTV-Dow Jones crashes again, plunges 1,000 points
    2/09 Fund crashes after wrong-way volatility trade – CNBC
    2/09 “Worst case scenario” emerging: “selling has shifted” – Zero Hedge

    2/08 Dow plummets 1032 points, now down 10% from record – CNBC
    2/08 FANG’s $90 billion disaster – Daily Reckoning
    2/08 A fundamental change is underway in the financial markets – CNBC

    2/08 Everything’s a sell in China after $660 billion equity wipeout – Bloomberg
    2/08 Tokyo to investors — don’t panic – Nikkei

    2/09 White House to federal agencies: prepare for shutdown – MarketWatch
    2/08 Government shutdown deadline looms Thursday – NBC News

    2/09 China’s HNA reverses buying binge with $4 billion selling spree – Bloomberg Ah yes, the Chinese need to raise cash.

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Saving the markets day by day,,, sovereign credit rating

    Stock market getting smoked because inflation is coming back – Business Insider
    We've seen $200 trillion of new debt pumped into the upper loop. That wasn't a problem. When a little bit of it bleeds over into the lower loop, THEN it is a problem.
    2/08 US stocks fall hard at the open – CNBC cut off the heroin/Viagra cocktail and,,, see what happens. The PPT will have to ride to the rescue again today.
    2/08 US 10-year Treasury yield continues rebound, nears 4-year high – CNBC This can't truly be called a rebound. More accurately, it is a suicide march.
    2/07 Stocks erase sharp gains as wild ride on Wall Street continues – CNBC Hussman has shown that there will be no returns on stocks for many years. There is no reason to stay in the market.
    2/07 World’s largest ETF hit by biggest four-day outflow on record – Bloomberg

    2/07 Trump allies encouraging him to compromise with Robert Mueller – CNBC
    Second Trump-Russia dossier being assessed by FBI | US news | The ...
    Jan 30, 2018

    Did you notice that; the more / longer that "they" investigate Trump, the more dirt they find on the Dems? Not just Dems, Steve Wynn is in deep do-do. The Russia investigation has poked several holes in the bottom of the swamp. Killary is more toxic that cyanide.
    2/07 Jeff flake blasts Donald Trump ‘treason’ comments – Time He blasts the comments. The cites of treason still stand,,, according to U.S. law.

    The U.S credit rating agencies are PAID by the companies and entities that they rate. The agencies marked giga-tons of sub-prime debt as being AAA because the companies that sold it were AAA. They claimed innocence when it All collapse in 2008.

    " S&P had announced a negative outlook on the AAA rating in April 2011. The downgrade to AA+ occurred four days after the 112th United States Congress voted to raise the debt ceiling of the federal government by means of the Budget Control Act of 2011"
    "Moody's first assigned the United States a AAA rating in 1917"
    S&P caught a lot of flak after they downgraded U.S. debt. The agencies now know that they can downgrade anything except for sovereign debt.
    Not ALL rating agencies are in America.
    "Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (“Dagong”) has decided to downgrade both the local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings of the United States of America (hereinafter referred to as "the United States" or “the US”) from A- to BBB +, and each with a negative outlook."

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Armstrong,,,Wells Fargo on the chopping block?

    Armstrong is still hard at work getting his revenge on the banks for throwing him in prison for several years. He has opened up Socrates at a level for the average investor. Remember, the banks can't make money unless somebody else loses money. About every 10 years, they take everybody to the cleaners. There is so much traffic trying to get into Socrates that ; "The Socrates site where the results are posted is on the Amazon Cloud. We had an urgent meeting today to run analysis as for why the system could not handle the massive traffic to the site over the past two days. We found out that it was pushed to 97% CPU capacity."
    This is going to make it very difficult for the banks to suck in the muppets.

    "So no, we cannot yet rule out a 2020 low. It all depends upon breaking 19,677.94. If that unfolds, then we are in for a major economic crisis on the Monetary Crisis Cycle going into that which began here in 2018 and goes into 2021 when it goes completely nuts. "

    "And more than just coincidence on Monday that Powell was sworn in and the very same day the Dow dropped a record 1175 points.

    The Fed needed to remind Trump who is in charge of the world finances so he doesn't think he is in charge of it."
    Good riddance, Janet, you were a colossal failure, pt 1 – David Stockman
    “Opioid Janet” got Wall St hooked on monetary heroin, pt 2 – David Stockman

    The death of the “death of contagion” central bank meme – Tom Luongo Yep, volatility is back.
    The FED wanted to cool down the markets but, not TOO cool.
    "At one point the Dow, which represents only 30 stocks but is still a widely followed indicator, tumbled to a loss of about 1,600 points.

    That’s as big of a decline as ever.
    But then something happened. Someone arbitrarily and aggressively started buying stocks and halved the loss. Monday will still go down as a Wall Street massacre but that superhero buyer made it half as bloody."

    The gold-price manipulators recently got taken to the cleaners. Is this a one-off deal? Is somebody trying to bring back a bit of honesty to markets? is Trump slowly draining the swamp?
    Years ago, Russia defaulted on it's bonds and brought down Long term Capital Management. LTCM had 2 Nobel prize winners (economics) on it's board. They claimed that even in the whole future of the galaxy, the trades could never go bad. These huge losses threatened to bring down everything. The big banks coughed up the money to save the day,,, except for Bear Stearns. They refused. In the 2008 crash, they were eviscerated.

    In the 2008 crash Lehman was killed off by Goldman Sachs and a couple of others. GS, et al refused to make bond payments that were owed and due to Lehman Bros. We had a GS guy as secretary of the treasury and he made sure that GS and a few others got money. Lehman was starved and strangled. Dick Fuld and the rest of the clowns at Lehman were CROOKED as could be. Were they killed off for this?

    Moving ahead in time, Wells Fargo is a global hero when it comes to crooked business. But, times are changing,,, Maybe Trump.
    Powell was sworn in AND, "Just days after the Fed slammed Wells Fargo on Janet Yellen's last day, by announcing an unprecedented enforcement action in which it prohibited the bank from "growing", effectively making it into a quasi-utility until it fixes its lacking internal control system and replaces much of its board, moments ago S&P added insult to injury by downgrading the largest US mortgage lender from A to A-, due to "Prolonged Regulatory And Governance Issues" with a Stable Outlook."
    "On Feb. 2, Wells Fargo & Co. ("Wells") became subject to a consent order from the Federal Reserve that caps the company's asset growth until it further enhances its governance and compliance and risk management to the standards required by the regulator."

    You can read the whole article but, it seems that somebody wants accountability.
    If Wells has no asset growth, it can't really earn much. It previously laundered hundreds of $billions in drug money. This downgrade will most likely drive away investors who don't want to be caught up in big losses and possible fines for regulatory issues. Wells Fargo may be the next kill-job. CITI and GS and MS won't shed a tear.

    "The Fed is already destroying money (they do this by not rolling over maturing bonds). Last week, the Fed reduced its balance sheet by $22 billion. While that doesn’t seem like much when you’re talking about a $4 trillion balance sheet, it was the Fed’s largest cut to date.

    Funny how the market hit the skids just after this happened. But you haven’t heard the mainstream media mention that."
    There are a LOT of people pissed off about big Pharma flooding the streets with drugs. Some professionals grabbed the head of A pharma,,, along with his wife,,,, zip tied them,,, hung them up and, strangled them.
    I won't shed a tear.

    "The U.S. Shale Industry hasn’t made any money producing oil since the industry took off in 2008. And it’s even worse than that. Not only have they not made any money, but they have also spent a lot of investor money (most that will never be returned) and added a massive amount of debt to their balance sheets.

    According to the Financial Times article, In Charts: Has The US Shale Drilling Revolution Peaked?, they provided the following chart on the negative free cash flow in the U.S. Exploration and Production Industry:"
    "Because shale energy industry is producing a grade of oil that has a very high API gravity (very light oil), we have to export more and more of it as our refiners can’t use it all. The notion that the U.S. decided to start export oil because we have become a leading oil producer is pure BOLLOCKS. The real reason the U.S. Government allowed the exporting of oil in 2015 was that our refining industry couldn’t use it all…LOL."

    "There’s an old saying about attorneys. “If the facts are on your side, pound the facts into the table. If the law is on your side, pound the law into the table. If neither the facts nor the law are on your side, pound the table.” That can also apply to the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, as it pounds the table in response to a report about the way that CalPERS downplays its unfunded pension liabilities, which are obliterating local budgets."
    CALPers is screaming that cities MUST raise taxes way up and give the money to CALPers.

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Are the CBs truly tapering?

    Here is a graph of the 10 year U.S. bond.
    Keep in mind that things are predicted to blow up progressively worse when it passes 3%. So, are bonds going up because the CBs are talking up portfolio reduction OR, are they going up because fiscal stimulus is actually being cut back?
    "But at 26-times GAAP earnings and 21.5-times trailing earnings--and even at 18.5-times next year’s ex-items earnings--the S&P 500 is pricing in a euphoria that is egregiously outlandish even for the carnival barkers on Wall Street.

    It’s hard to come up with a better example for the market’s latest bubblelicious hysteria than Netflix. The company is projected to post operating free cash flow of about negative $9 billion over the five years ending in this year. Meanwhile, its market cap has soared well over $100 billion. At a PE ratio above 200, Netflix is burning through billions of dollars in cash each year. Yet, its billions of dollars’ worth of bonds are rated B+ by S&P. "
    "Therefore, when the central bank bids disappear come this fall, the $230 trillion worth of global debt will have to stand on its own wobbly feet for the first time in many years. "
    "In like manner, who is going to want to own a U.S. 10-year Note that yields 2.7% when the average was well over 7% from the years 1971-2000? Those years are the important ones to analyze because it was after the Fed closed the gold window"
    "Interest rates are about to become unglued in a big way as this bond bubble explodes. Especially now that the Fed will be selling $600 billion of its balance sheet an annual rate come this fall; just as deficits climb to north of $1 trillion and the total U.S. debt has risen to 350% of GDP."

    "And as risk premiums become paper thin, the stock market will fall precipitously; just as junk bond yields begin to soar. This will slam the borrowing door shut on high-yield issuances and send these debt-dependent companies into a tailspin. At the same time, every asset that was priced off of those ”risk free” sovereign bond yields, which provided countries the privilege that could only expected in the twilight zone, i.e., to make money by borrowing money,"

    Carl Icahn has become a doomer,
    There has been TOO LITTLE emphasis placed on the effects of birth control.
    "The population is graying quickly. The State Council said last year that about a quarter of China's population will be 60 or older by 2030, up from 13.3% in the 2010 census. Meanwhile, scrapping the one-child policy hasn't raised birth rates as high living costs deter larger families. Births fell to 17.2 million last year from 18.5 million in 2016."
    PIOnline : Subscription Center

    Blame it on the bots,
    Blame it on the drugs,
    GREAT growth industry, "Sex trafficking—especially when it comes to the buying and selling of young girls—has become big business in America, the fastest growing business in organized crime and the second most-lucrative commodity traded illegally after drugs and guns.

    As investigative journalist Amy Fine Collins notes, “It’s become more lucrative and much safer to sell malleable teens than drugs or guns. A pound of heroin or an AK-47 can be retailed once, but a young girl can be sold 10 to 15 times a day"

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    The rise and fall of the nation-State

    Nothing is off-topic because everything affects the economy. I'm looking at more basic problems.
    Here is an article from Kunstler. He lays out the absolute disintegration of the system. He never like Trump but, he sees the systemic corruption to be far worse than anything that Trump might do.
    "President Trump himself, the avatar of wished-for return to American greatness, who is looking more and more like Melville’s awful and enigmatic White Whale pursued by single-minded mad men — and, remember, despite all the bloody ire, abuse, and harrassment heaped upon him by the vengeful Ahab, Moby Dick ended up smashing the whaling ship Pequod, and swimming away to legend."
    You should read all of it.
    A Quandary - Kunstler

    Solar power is close enough to free energy to qualify in a certain sense. It allows people to break free (to a certain degree) from the centralized control of the State. There are lots of new devices that can pull water from the air. The State is hard at work trying to cement control. Remote control of electric meters and water meters is just one facet. Brainwashing students is another facet. There are many. To a certain degree, the PTB must keep us poor to keep us working. How many people would opt out of the rat race if they could just set up a little homestead in the desert with a greenhouse and a few chickens?

    The State goes to great lengths to equate itself 100% with society. Two inseparable constructs. There has been plenty written about a society without a State.
    Historically, man ONLY organized himself along genetic lines. Our survival system is geared to preserve our genetic lines. Infidelity in women is bad because the man in the relationship might end up supporting somebody else’s genetic line. We organise along lines of family, tribe and clan. A nation is a completely unnatural line of organization. The current push towards socialism attempts to destroy all tribal unity. Flooding Germany, France and England with whatever trash can be found is a clear example of attacking tribal unity.
    Slovakia has outright refused, Slovakia Will Build Border Wall - PM Says "We Will Never Accept a Single Muslim"
    They aren't the only ones. EU to sue Poland, Hungary and Czechs for refusing refugee quotas ...
    EU to sue Poland, Hungary and Czechs for refusing refugee quotas - BBC News

    Japan doesn't want any foreigners and israel is deporting as many as possible.
    The Kalergi plan calls for the destruction of the tribes through forced immigration. The tribes are pushing back. Everybody has high hopes for the new leader of Austria. The looming question is: Can you destroy tribal unity and still have national unity?
    "This is exactly what was predicted by the early Wired founders, who extrapolated from the rise of the web to the “end of the nation-state”. Although that may be going a bit too far, it is worth noting that the nation-state, far from being the Natural State of Man, is actually a relatively recent invention. “Most theories see the nation state as a 19th-century European phenomenon, "

    "Before the 19th-century, regions were defined by language, religion, ethnicity and the reach of protecting rulers, from kings and sultans to tribal chiefs. So for all but a tiny blip in humanity’s existence ( less than 200 years of our 2 million years on this planet and 6,000 years of civilization) we weren’t ruled by nation-states, and odds are that at some point in the future we won’t be either."
    "But the notion of national borders and citizenship, defined by laws not ethnicity or tribal, language, religious or cultural affiliation, is both new and fragile. Indeed, it’s looking as temporary as the systems that came before it."
    Good article.

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Crunch time

    2/06 Global sell-off continues into Asia with Japan and Hong Kong plunging – CNBC
    2/06 Machines raise worries amid market rout – Barron’s
    ah yes, the algos
    2/06 The Fed’s dependence on stability – Real Investment Advice Pumping in $27 trillion of new debt doesn't stabilize anything.
    2/06 Credit Suisse plunges on exposure to volatility ETF – Forex everyone acted like volatility would never return.
    2/06 Traders panic as XIV disintegrates -90% after the close – Zero Hedge2/06 VIX at 38 is Waterloo for the beloved short volatility trade – Bloomberg

    2/05 Nikkei, other Asian futures plunging – Business Insider
    2/05 More than $90 billion in value wiped out from the popular ‘FANG’ tech stocks – CNBC
    2/05 Dow plunges 1,000 points, S&P 500 now negative for the year – CNBC

    Goldilocks has flown the coop.

    2/06 As bitcoin bubble loses air, frauds and flaws rise to surface – NY Times
    2/06 Bitcoin tumbles almost 20% as crypto backlash accelerates – Bloomberg
    2/06 Bitcoin is dead? The blockchain didn’t get the memo – Decentralize Today
    2/05 Bitcoin bloodbath builds – now among biggest crashes ever – Zero Hedge
    Nuff said.

    Man is second-rate when it comes to handling big-data.
    2/06 Robo-advisor websites overwhelmed, crash – CNBC
    But, THAT is the future.

    Armstrong, "Politicians just do not get it. They have convinced themselves that they can tax whatever they desire and people have no choice but to pay. Missing in their analysis are two influences (1) people just stop earning income for it reaches a point it is not worth working anymore, and (2) you simply pick-up and leave. "
    Worth reading,
    To republicans, everyone is equal at the start of the race
    To democrats, every one is equal at the end of the race.
    While the dems and reps have been called 2 wings of the same bird, the republicans were a bit more likely to embrace fiscal conservatives. That was then. This is now.
    "Indeed, they are the proverbial elephants in the room, thereby giving rise to a considerable irony: To wit, the GOP party of the elephant, which is supposed to be the palladium of financial rectitude in American politics, has forgotten about them completely.

    For instance, in his triumphalist SOTU, the Donald didn't utter so much as a single syllable about the Fed, the budget, entitlements, the $1 trillion per year deficits looming ahead or the nation's soaring public debt. Yet after omitting virtually everything which counts, he went on to crow about how he is making America Great Again (MAGA) by making better trade deals and borrowing untold sums from future generations."
    Stockman makes good points but, I suspect that Trump has something up his sleeve.
    Contra Corner » Two Elephants In The Room That The GOP Has Completely Forgotten
    Trump is a wily one. He may allow the system to crash and force the FED out of business. He could remodel the system on the Bank of North Dakota. This would be palatable to private banks because they could still make a profit. BND doesn't try to compete with or, exclude private banking. The (currently $450 B) interest drain would not leave GOV coffers. When interest rates rise, GOV interest debt will go up towards $1 trillion. What better time than now (shortly) to propose squeezing out the CB?

    On the economy, Trump is all talk. I'm guessing that he has a plan but, it is too radical to take off the wraps now. When interest rates hit ABOUT 4%, EVERYBODY will be looking for a fall guy to pin it on AND a savior to rescue them.

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    The FED is trying to tamp down the "enthusiasm in the stock market. A stock bear market usually takes many months to bottom out. This time, all the gamblers are aware of the extreme over-valuations. Everyone knows that the algos can rush the exit far faster than they can. After hours trading is different. It matches up buy & sell orders to complete a transaction without going through the exchange. If a big group heads for the exits after-hours, they must all find a buyer. If they don't, there will be a large stack of sell orders waiting to find a buyer.
    John Hussman has shown good cause to believe that the stock market will not have any earnings for the next 10--12 years. Everyone is aware that there is little attraction to buying high-priced stocks that have no earning potential.

    2/05 No bounce yet in U.S. equity futures as investor anxiety grows – Bloomberg
    2/05 Major indexes in Japan, South Korea, Australia and China fall – CNBC
    2/05 Yellen warns investors “be careful”, but “don’t label it a bubble” – Zero Hedge
    Market stumble or something more? – Real Investment Advice
    The market system is tight in all directions – Fasanara
    Today’s market is anything but normal – International Man

    We should see very soon if the FED is going to ignite some kind of rally. Money-renting has just gotten too big. There just isn't enough demand.
    The grand crowded trade of financial speculation – Credit Bubble Bulletin
    This brings us to,
    2/05 European markets plummet amid global selloff – CNBC
    2/05 Dow falls more than 100 points as stocks resume Friday’s ugly sell-off – Bloomberg
    2/05 Tesla: recalibration time – Seeking Alpha

    Apparently, the State is paving the way for gold to make comeback. 2/05 Fines against bullion banks for market rigging vindicate GATA – GATA

    Here is a vid explaining your future taxes,
    Here are the numbers for each worker,
    Armstrong is going to release his program. Will that put everybody on the same side of the boat?

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Save the banks,,, light a fuse under the 10 year note

    It's pretty quiet right now. The FED doesn't have to actively reduce it's balance sheet to set off deflation. The CBs have been buying every dip to keep investors in the market. If the FED truly wants to tamp down the fires, it only needs to ignore the dips. Historically a meltdown in the stock market took weeks or months to hit bottom. That was before algos were doing much of the trading. That was before so many trades were executed after hours.
    The FED is trying to cool down the fires without blowing up the markets. They have screwed up EVERYTHING else so, what are their chances of success?
    Crypto-coins are a creation of the NSA. Various States and many banks have banned them. They are in flame-out right now. BUT, there is a new twist. Gold backed crypto coins have appeared. EVERYBODY knows how safe gold is.
    BTW, these gold-backed crypto-coins are supposedly gold backed. They are NOT gold convertible.

    Kunstler, "The evolving matrix of rackets that prompted the 2008 debacle has only grown more elaborate and craven as the old economy of stuff dies and is replaced by a financialized economy of swindles and frauds. Almost nothing in America’s financial life is on the level anymore"
    "Erasing psychological boundaries is a dangerous thing. When the rackets finally come to grief—as they must because their operations don’t add up—and the reckoning with true price discovery commences at the macro scale, the American people will find themselves in even more distress than they’ve endured so far.
    This will be the moment when either nobody has any money, or there is plenty of worthless money for everyone. Either way, the functional bankruptcy of the nation will be complete, and nothing will work anymore, including getting enough to eat. "
    Beyond Cynicism: America Fumbles Towards Kafka’s Castle | The American Conservative
    Keep in mind that almost all of the money supply is NOT paper. Paper money will be in BIG demand when credit locks up.

    Jim Willie, "The USGovt and USFed colluded to prevent the entire set of Wall Street banks from failing like Lehman Brothers did. They all had the same ugly insolvent traits. Few tell the story correctly, but Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan suffocated Lehman to death. Lehman did not fail without help. Like Chief Justice Scalia, Lehman was suffocated in a bed of unpaid bond sales. What comes next is a nasty corrosive dangerous sequence of financial market crises, where pumped paper assets suffer notable declines. It will include the stock, bond, and currency markets. "

    "What comes next is what the Jackass has come to call the Global Systemic Lehman Event. For ten years, the Powers that Be, namely the banker cabal, have been supporting the entire global bond market in almost exactly the same manner as they supported the mortgage finance market in 2005 through 2007 before it erupted. The subprime bond market crisis of 2008 will be repeated, but on a global scale which includes major sovereign bonds. "
    "Warning signs are numerous. Consider the Money Velocity index, the flattened Treasury Yield Curve, the junk bond index, the pension fund shortfalls, the business defaults, the high leverage in big bank bond portfolios, and the growing automobile bond market travesty that features a full repeat episode of the subprime mortgage market. The USFed is more guilty of heretical monetary policy with each passing year. "

    "For the last two years, the central bank has been buying US stocks with both hands using their Wall Street partners in collusion. For the last four years, the central bank has been supporting (rigging) the Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) bonds, in order to silence the price inflation warnings."
    "The Jackass has been adamant, and mostly (not completely) alone in heralding that the QE might be financial stimulus but it causes capital destruction in an unavoidable deadly manner. QE is wrecking the USEconomy on Main Street while providing a party-like atmosphere on Wall Street."
    "The fuse to light the financial market bonfire is the USTreasury Bond market, in particular the long-term maturity. "
    "There are no free markets anymore, not since 9/11 and the installation of the fascist bankers at the helm. They committed the terrorist crime, sacked the World Trade Center giant bank, installed the Patriot Act, captured the $700 billion TARP Fund, and have controlled the USGovt ever since. It is all a crime scene, a coup d’etat, with cover provided by the lapdog corrupted press networks."
    Technically, the coup commenced on November 22, 1963. JFK was going to end the FED and CIA. The takeover was jacked up a notch on 9/11 to further control and cement the control of the mother country.
    "We were told QE would be temporary, like for six months. The Jackass instantly declared in 2011 that it would be permanent, just like the Zero Rate Interest Rate policy"

    "The USTreasury 10-year yield is on the verge of a breakout. Interest rates are rising, and could cause tremendous damage, starting with the stock market. The USFed balance sheet is loaded for massive losses, from USTBonds bought at low rates. If and when TNX goes above 3.0% on the all-important bond yield, the S&P500 and Dow Jones Index will turn down hard and scream of a major stock market decline."
    "The Global Financial RESET will be urgently put into motion, jumping up a gear in activity and intensity. Ironically, expect in several months that the East will be invited to help stabilize matters. They will comply, but on condition the Gold Standard is re-instated."

    "The secondary pattern hit its 2.7% yield target. It is a highly reliable pattern in general. The recent move above the 2.60% key resistance level with gusto could continue to provide impetus in pushing the USTreasury 10-year yield (TNX) above the 3.0% level. That would cause severe problems"
    "The Head & Shoulders reversal target calls for an upward move in the neighborhood of 3.4% to 4.0% incredibly, as the great unwind is near, for both stocks and bonds. The more conservative 3.4% target pertains to the basic H&S pattern without considering its upward bias tilt. The more aggressive 4.0% target pertains to the more liberal interpretation "
    "Either way, the move toward the 3.5% area will cause tremendous grief and lead to significant publicity. Expect a major stock market decline, together with a major bond market decline, the worst of both worlds. Two declines simultaneously under the King Dollar banner will signal ignominious light."
    "The last time the USTreasury Yield Spread went almost totally flat was immediately before the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis. It served as the key signal, and accurately so, for what was to come in the following several months. The same warning signal is now flashing red"
    US Treasury Bonds: Fuse To Light The Bonfire | Gold Eagle

    The average person does not care about bond spreads. They are all-important to the investing community. You now have something of a timeline if you watch the rise of the 10 year bond.

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Bad ideas,, bad plans,,, bad outcomes

    Thanks, Wayne. Talk is cheap and history is only a guide. Human nature doesn't change much but, new inputs from our surroundings eliminate old models. Ned Ludd was the "first" to decry automation. The birth of the AI offspring chip will bring an AI chip for EVERY application. Unfolding neural networks will bring big changes and maybe, danger.
    War will completely change,

    Hackers will flood everything. AI will tell us when we are going to die,
    Man advanced from an agrarian society to a mechanized society. If he gets displaced from participating in the industrial society, he has to revert to an agrarian society. That can't work.
    Depopulation in all it's guises is on the rise, “Funding levels are at their lowest for many years, with the Congo seeming to have ‘fallen off the map’ for many donors, at a time when we are facing vastly increased humanitarian need,”

    Krap with a capital K
    "Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan: “If We Wait to See Actual Inflation, We’ll Be Too Late; We’ll Likely Overshoot Full Employment This Year; We Central Bankers Must Be Very Vigilant; Base Case Is For 3 Rate Hikes in 2018, Could Be More.”
    The rate hikes are simply daggers in the heart of sovereign debt. Will Trump get rid of the FED and let the Treasury do it's job?

    "When this current bubble pops, the one that I've repeatedly described as The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles, the ensuing damage will be many multiples of that caused by the bursting of the bubbles that preceded it. That’s the nature of these things: you either take your lumps when you should, or you pay a far steeper price later on."
    "In Scenario A the banks make $10 from their 1% spread on $1,000. In Scenario B they make $355 in net interest profits on your same $1,000 deposit. That's a big difference.

    But what if even that’s not enough to sate the banks' hunger for greater profit? What if the banks feel overly hamstrung by that pesky 10% reserve requirement? What if they only had to hold 5% in reserve?

    Well, then $20,000 in loans can be made against your $1,000 deposit. If we call this Scenario C (again at a 4% loan rate,) then banks can make $755 in net interest profit on the back of your $1,000 deposit. Now that’s more exciting!"
    "Each night, right before the bank's reserve snapshot is taken, all of the money in your checking account is briefly "swept" into a special sweep account which has no reserve requirements. So, when the reserve snapshot is taken for your bank, presto!, there's no money in your checking account -- so, as far the regulators are concerned, your bank need not hold any money in reserve for that account.

    And right after the reserve snapshot is taken, presto again!, your money is swept right back into your checking account."
    The FED tried raising rates in 2007. Things crashed. They are trying to raise rates now. The Site "Economica" shows good proof that the CB can't successfully raise rates when the consuming population is shrinking. We can expect another crash but, much worse, because there is so much more debt in the system.

    2/04 All the Nunes memo proves is that it was massively overhyped – Vanity Fair
    2/04 Republican memo interesting, but maybe not how GOP hoped – Buzzfeed

    The Dems would like this to go away. Like Killary once said, "what difference does it make?"
    Sorry, killing a group of U.S. military doesn't really kick of a big stink. In this case, there is far more at stake.
    "The FISA court which approved the FBI surveillance was never told that the dossier had been funded by the Democrats. This is what is classified as FRAUD UPON THE COURT.

    “Fraud upon the court” has been defined by the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals as any “attempts to, defile the court itself, or is a fraud perpetrated by officers of the court so that the judicial machinery can not perform in the usual manner its impartial task of adjudging cases.” Kenner v. C.I.R., 387 F.3d 689 (1968); 7 Moore’s Federal Practice, 2d ed., p. 512, ś 60.23. "
    “Fraud on the court is one of the most serious violations that can occur in a court of law. If fraud on the court occurs, the effect is that the entire case is voided or cancelled. Any ruling or judgment that the court has issued will be void. "
    "Therefore, anyone who tries to hide the memo is conspiring with the FBI and that is actually a crime. We are witnessing the complete meltdown of the rule of law. CNN and the New York Times, of course, spin it to claim there is nothing really here."

    If you look at the planned borrowing numbers from FED GOV, you can see that nobody in D.C. plans to cut back. The "Crisis Manager" that Armstrong proposed is nowhere in sight.
    So, is all of this just a coincidence? It really doesn't seem that way.

    Leave a comment: