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Old 09-17-2019, 04:24 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,845
Rickards on social unrest,,,, a new level of MAD

The whole world has turned against israel because it is led by Netanayahooo. Hopefully, the israelis will toss him out in the upcoming election.
Meanwhile Jim Rickards has a lot to say. The 16 U.S. intelligence agencies war-gamed the economy and, they asked Rickards to give them expert advice on the bond markets. They concluded that the economy is going to collapse. This is kind of a joke because nobody has an economic database anywhere near what Armstrong has.
Here is what Rickards has to say;
"With another financial crisis imminent, Mr Rickards posed the question: who is going to bail out the central banks?

“Your only alternatives are turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to basically bail out the world although that is a slow and difficult process.”
"Mr Rickards said some people expect the US Federal Reserve to jump to the rescue again in the next financial crisis.

“What are they going to do if a crisis hit tomorrow? Go to US$5 trillion, US$6 trillion?”
Mr Rickards said the other alternative was to shut down the banks.
“And that’s what I expect will happen. They’ll close exchanges, close banks, close ATMs, freeze accounts.”
To me, this is just simplistic an answer.
"Mr Rickards was quick to point out he doesn’t foresee a dystopian future or an end of the world scenario.
However, he said he did expect the crisis will begin with “enormous social unrest”.
"Civilised behaviour only lasts about three days in the absence of reliable water, food, electricity and all the things we take for granted.”
In a situation where banks are closed and people can’t access their money, Mr Rickards said social disorder will break out “quite quickly”.
"He said the social disorder will be most acute in major metropolitan areas.

To survive this new system, Mr Rickards anticipates communities will shift to a semi-barter system where skills are traded and silver, or gold if you have it, can be used to buy food and other essentials."
Once again, this is too simplistic. You can't break part of the infrastructure and, have the rest working ie fuel & food distribution.
"As the crisis unfolds, the US dollar is expected to become worthless – with gold the primary valuable commodity.

Even then, Mr Rickards said, in his opinion, it was safer to own mostly physical bullion rather than gold futures, options, unallocated gold contracts and ETFs etc."
Wrong again. People will be desperate to get their hands on paper dollars.
https://smallcaps.com.au/jim-rickard...s-future-gold/
He is interesting but, spoken like a true goldbug.
Here is the vid, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok73IoKxCss

Nassim Taleb coined the term, "black swan". Something that happens that never happened before. There are several candidates.
9/15 Nearly two out of three cyber attacks targeting SMEs – Benzinga
9/15 Oklahoma pension fund cyber attack shows rising risk for munis – Bond Buyer
9/10 The untold story of Notpetya, the most devastating cyberattack in history – Wired
9/08 Warning issued after malware hijacks bitcoin blockchain – Forbes
9/07 4 biggest cybersecurity crises of 2019 to date – Hack Post

Small actors can have huge effects. The tools from the NSA got out into the wild after they were hacked. There will never be a world free of hackers.

The day after the 9/11 attack, I called up the FBI and warned them that a likely target for terrorists would be; take a big model airplane with a small charge of C-5 and, fly it into the side of a CNG or LNG tankship. There was one such explosion . It took out hundreds of square miles (shock and flame). The FBI guy agreed that it was a possible scenario.

Charles Huge Smith writes that the modern drone planes are a "black swan". Nobody anticipated how effective they would be. The attack on the Saudi refinery showed that drone attacks are like malware attacks. They don't cost much and, are hard to stop.
"This is asymmetric warfare on a new scale: $20,000 of drones can wreak $20 million in damage and financial losses of $200 million--or $2 billion or $20 billion, if global markets are upended."
"there really isn't any reliable defense against a coordinated drone attack, nor is there any reliable way to distinguish between an Amazon drone delivering a package and a drone delivering a bomb."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Black Swan Is a Drone
Does the world have a whole new level of mutually assured destruction?

Armstrong, "Meanwhile, economic data was released from China showing industrial growth slumping to the weakest rate in over 17 years. The US sanctions are taking a toll with the industrial output slowing down"
"A new Reuters article suggests that Australian insiders within the intelligence agency have reason to believe that China was behind a recent cyber attack on its national Parliament and three other political parties before a general election in May."

9/16 $1m a minute: the farming subsidies destroying the world – Guardian
9/16 Saudi attacks reveal oil supply fragility in asymmetric war – Bloomberg
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