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Old 09-14-2019, 04:47 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,849
ECB, screwed either way.,, NIRP, the destroyer,,, Stockman

Once again, my post got zapped. This time, my fault. I have to do the short version.
The Pentagon warns of a complete breakdown of society as mega-cities rise. Just like Robocop andEscape From New York
That is the projection for 2030. Here is what is happening right now.

Disasters causing billions in agricultural losses, with drought leading the way
The Midwest's Farms Face an Intense, Crop-Killing Future
Drought and Extreme Heat Are Killing the World's Crops | Time
Hurricanes, floods, drought and wildfires, 2017 the year of crop losses
Hunger looms as floods destroy crops, sweep away animals in East Africa
Devastating Impacts of Climate Change Threatening Farming
How Climate Change Will Alter Our Food - State of the Planet
Crop Failure A Growing Reality - Earth Changes and the Pole flip
Crop failure and food shortages grand solar minimum and pole flip
Cold and Wet Weather to blame for the Slowest Maize-Planting Season on Record

The emerging solar cycle 25 will be very weak but, our magnetosphere is even weaker. The sunspots may be fewer but, the flares and coronal holes will still affect us. Along with this, we will get a lot more cosmic rays that will bring rain and cloud cover.
You can monitor food production at Crop, Adapt 2030 and Ice Age farmer
Here are the countries that are most at risk. Keep in mind that crop failures may completely change the list as exporters become importers.
Apparently, you will go to walmart to get your food.

9/13 Trump the Russian puppet. A story that just will not die – Strategic Culture
Not until the bombs drop on Tehran.
9/13 Banks seek lower credit score requirements for subprime borrowers – Zero Hedge
9/13 Medical debt is crushing many Americans – Zero Hedge
/13 Another surge in CPI medical care costs – Mish

It's not the doctors getting rich.

9/13 Draghi ties Lagarde’s hands with promise of indefinite stimulus – Reuters
9/13 ECB’s open-ended push leaves it more isolated – Bloomberg
9/13 ECB’s QE: whatever it takes morphs into “as long as it takes” – Mish
9/13 Palace revolt at the ECB, legitimacy of policy out the window – Wolf Street
9/13 The new ECB QE is a mistake. Here is what it should have done – Daniel Lacalle

"Almost all economists and market pundits believe NIRP will be a short-lived phenomenon. However, I have a very different take.
Negative interest rate policy changes the law of economics.
I also believe that NIRP will not only go much lower than almost everyone expects but will be with us globally. Across the board. For much longer than we can imagine.
First, let me explain why NIRP will go lower and stick around for a much longer time than anyone expects.
The general perception of NIRP, using a bond at a -0.5% interest rate, for example, means that if I buy that bond, I will get back less money in the future.
But, the reason why it’s working is the unit cost of the bond is rising significantly. This means the investor who is getting a negative interest rate, is making up for it on the bond price of the unit."

"The price of Austria’s 50-year bond has gone up 28% year-to-date and 8.8%% in August alone. All the while the yield is -0.02% after taxes. That is an incredible return for the bond market unit." "From the perspective of a bond manager, he is aware he is taking the loss on the yield. But, he’s making a 28% gain on the unit price."
So, as long as the CBs pump in new liquidity, the profit never stops.
9/13 ECB’s QE: whatever it takes morphs into “as long as it takes” – Mish
The printing presses can never slow down or,,, the bond market flames out.

BUT, the CBs have to constantly increase the supply of bonds.
9/13 Mnuchin says 100-year Treasury bond possible – Reuters
So, all the funds and savers who depend on interest income are to be sacrificed to temporarily rescue the bond market.

Stockman, "So, the first thing is to stay out of the casino. By that, I mean the financial-market stocks, bonds, and everything else.

These markets are so artificial. They’re just chasing what the central banks are doing. There’s no honest price discoveries or supply and demand; nobody’s discounting the future of economic growth, productivity, and investment. You’ve got the chart monkeys, 29-year-old day traders who are in charge of the market.

When the big correction comes, there are going to be massive losses, and the panic will be great. All correlations will go to 1—which means everything will fall: the good, the bad, and the indifferent."
What about my safe-haven bonds?
"You can’t be saved by picking high-yielding stocks or conservative blue chips or stocks that provide daily necessities like food—it doesn’t matter. Everything’s overpriced right now because of this huge financial distortion.

When the real correction comes and the central banks are revealed to be impotent and powerless, then everything is going to collapse. You’ll be in harm’s way no matter how clever you’ve been in trying to pick and choose."
"We have to recognize that the 30-year experiment in what I call “Keynesian Central Banking”—which is almost like central planning—is over."
"Remember the Time magazine cover from the late ’90s, “The Committee to Save the World”? It had Robert Rubin, Alan Greenspan, and Larry Summers on the cover. They’re now going to be the ogres who destroyed the world."
As long as it saves the bankers, that is what is important.

"his ferocious attack against the Federal Reserve will tear away the veil that it’s a beyond-politics cabal of geniuses who are safeguarding your livelihood.

He’s going to tear it apart. He’s going to totally besmirch and destroy the credibility of the Fed, at least in the eyes of his base. It’s going to create an enormous political debate about central banking."
"and he’s going to go after the Fed. We haven’t seen anything yet. And I relish the prospect. They need to be beat to smithereens with a strong, lethal political club, and that’s Trump. And after the fragments end up all over the cutting room floor, we can figure out what to do next. But you must take down this institution.

The Fed is the number one, the number two, and the number three enemy of prosperity, capitalism, free markets, individual liberty, and the wealth of people in the world today.
Central banks have to be totally discredited and taken down."
"The one thing that Trump is going to accomplish—as he desperately struggles for re-election—is he’s going to finally rip off the Band-Aid. We’re going to have a real debate about this awful curse of Keynesian central banking.

Let's not blame Keynes for the State takeover of the CBs to do war finance.
"And remember 80% of daily volume in the stock market is essentially either index-driven ETFs or various kinds of quantitative, machine-driven investment strategies. If that ever breaks loose, the market will go through an air pocket, and then it’s all over except for the shouting."
Shouting !!! I want to hear some screaming from the money renters.
"If the stock market cuts through these air pockets down below, the recession will happen instantly, and no one will see it coming—just like in 2008.

I remember in the spring of 2008 they were still talking about the Goldilocks economy. And in November 2008, they were talking about the end of the world."
"I think the odds are that it will happen before then, and if it does, Trump is toast. Elizabeth Warren will be the next president of the United States, and as that prospect becomes even more probable, the panic in the stock market will be something to behold. It will be worse than anything we’ve seen since October 1987.

If you talk about volatility, you haven’t seen nothing yet. Wait until the election gets really in full heat next year."

Buchanan; "To Bolton, Trump’s trashing of Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal was the first step toward a confrontation and clash to smash the Tehran regime. To Trump, it was a first step to a Trump-negotiated better bargain with Iran.

Bolton’s hawkish stance of confrontation, and conflict if necessary to impose our will, from the Eastern Baltic, to Ukraine and the Black Sea, to the Middle East, Persian Gulf, Afghanistan, the Korean Peninsula, today finds almost no broad support among the American electorate." "It is only among foreign policy elites in Beltway think tanks, the generals who ran the national security state, liberal interventionists in the media"
Don't forget Bibi Netanyahu,
"What Mattis is saying is that Trump’s goal of extracting us from the “forever war” entails too great a risk, and U.S. troops in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan will have to soldier on, indefinitely."
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