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Old 01-03-2019, 04:57 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,281
Nobody knows which way to run for cover

Charles Hugh Smith has lots to say that is well worth reading.
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan19...ughts1-19.html
Armstrong, "in early 2019 trading, it looked as though we were set to resume the ‘sell at any price’ trend" "The trigger today was the China Factory Activity, as it released way below consensus and encouraged a 3% in the Hang Seng and a 1.2% fall for Shanghai."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...anuary-2-2018/
1/01 Chinese markets’ 2018 performance was their worst in a decade – CNBC
So, don't buy Chinese stocks.
Avoid US stocks, Go With Emerging markets - Morgan Stanley
The merging markets have $13 trillion in debt that is increasingly more difficult to service.

There is a very good reason that quantitative easing isn't done. With a flow of new liquidity entering the markets, nobody can formulate a strategy for long-term investment. They have to lock in to short term investments. Valuations for short term assets get overly inflated. This causes a yield curve inversion and, everybody knows that short term assets are primed for a fall. The world-improvers are trying to inflict socialism on America. Did they cause the FED to maintain QE? Did the FED do it on it's own? Greenspan, Brnanke and Yellen insisted that we needed 2% inflation,,,, to maintain price stability. The Goy FED heads wanted nothing to do with this.

QE Has Done Something Much More Damaging Than The Fed Could Have Imagined
"The abnormally long, QE-fueled bull market killed off anything that wasn't, at its core, a short volatility strategy. Now, whether it's risky credit, levered equities, or risk parity, almost all strategies are taking similar risks. QE has done something much more damaging than the Fed could have imagined. It changed the very nature of the market,"

"If we have a recession with overnight rates still at 2.50%, what can the Fed do? Coordinated easing with the ECB and BOJ is off the table -- their rates are negative and they're running out of assets to buy for QE. At least the Fed won't have that issue. With surging budget deficits, the Fed will have plenty of Treasuries to buy. And that's only just begun, because the next put for the markets is really from fiscal, not monetary policy."
But, will the FED buy treasuries after all the warning signs?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...fed-could-have

1/02 ECB appoints temporary administrators for troubled Italian bank Carige – CNBC
The whole board of directors walked out. What is the admin going to do?
1/02 It’s time to dump FAANG investing in the trash – Yahoo!
All the FAANGs are falling badly. Sentiment and confidence don't look good so, this will probably go down for several more weeks.

1/02 Yield curve ends year flattest since 2007 – Reuters
1/02 Why we should worry about the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverting – Forbes

The ECB is the only entity buying Italian debt. Will the FED be the only one buying U.S. debt?
1/02 Australian home prices mark worst year since 2008 – Reuters
When China sneezes,,,,,

"Let’s start by talking about politics. According to Axios, Donald Trump is currently the subject of 17 different investigations.

Yes, you read that correctly.

We have never seen anything like this in American history. Even during the Nixon era there was some measure of restraint, but at this point they are trying to come up with any angle that they possibly can to get rid of Donald Trump.

And the left truly believes that this is the year that they are going to get rid of him. In fact, the Hill just published an article containing 30 predictions for 2019, and these were the top three…

Donald J. Trump’s presidency will not survive 2019;
The downward trajectory of every aspect of his tenure indicates we are headed for a spectacular political crash-and-burn — and fairly soon;"
"Unfortunately, economic conditions are really starting to slow down, and big corporations are beginning to announce large scale layoffs. Just like we saw during the last recession, eventually there will be millions of Americans that lose their jobs, and mortgage defaults will spike dramatically once again.

And just like in 2008, the stock market is starting to plunge in a major way.

2018 was the worst year for the stock market in a decade, we just witnessed the worst month of December for Wall Street since the Great Depression, and at this point approximately 12 trillion dollars of global stock market wealth has been wiped out."
2019: It Is Going To Be Much Worse Than You Think… – End Of The American Dream
Ukraine is going down hard and fast. It was recently proved that they shot down the MH17 flight. Food is getting expensive, https://www.rt.com/business/447207-e...ending-rating/
Fresh Russian sanctions will make things worse.
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