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Old 01-02-2019, 02:57 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,281
Prognosis for 2019

Ronald Reagan Quotes. Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.
The middle class stopped consuming and, the State tries to be a stand-in for the missing consumption. But, WE are the State.
Another epic economic collapse is coming - The Washington Post
$250 Trillion in Debt: the World's Post-Lehman Legacy - Bloomberg

The State has been subsidising TOO MANY entities. The public debt is just too high. The private sector unloaded everything on Uncle Sam.
Here's who owns a record $21.21 trillion of U.S. debt - MarketWatch
Remember that this figure doesn't include $3 trillion owed to SS,,,, part of the $212 unfunded liabilities (Kotlikoff)

We are starting a new year. Which way will the winds of sentiment and confidence blow?
You can bet that the shutdown and turmoil in the District of Corruption will spook the markets.

The yield curve has always been a good predictor of recession. It's not looking good right now. There is too much volatility of investors to stomach.

12/31 China’s December manufacturing contracts even more than expected – CNBC
12/31 Japan and China forge alliance to boost fiscal stimulus – SCMP

Stimulus to who? Both have a shrinking population. China's Belt and Road initiative is trying to develop external markets. But, the global mean wage doesn't allow for much consumption.
1/01 Chinese markets’ 2018 performance was their worst in a decade – CNBC
China is strangling on pollution.
Also, automation isn't going to go away.

The markets have finally come to the realization that solar power is a technology, NOT a fuel. As such, they will no longer fund losing proposition like Nuke power or coal power. Natural gas too is losing market share to solar. This will play havoc with energy markets.
Germany just closed their last coal mine. Hawaii has shown the way to going to 100% solar.

#15 According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, almost 1 out of every 4 children in rural areas is currently living in poverty.

#16 At this point, almost 52 percent of all children live in a home that receives monthly help from the federal government.

"#21 In 1980, the average American worker’s debt was 1.96 times larger than his or her monthly salary. Today, that number has ballooned to 5.00.

#23 According to one recent study, the “rate of people 65 and older filing for bankruptcy is three times what it was in 1991”.

#24 More than 100 churches in the United States are dying every single week."
#28 The number of married couples with children in the U.S. just reached a 56 year low.

#29 In the city of Baltimore, approximately one out of every four babies is born as an opioid addict.
44 Numbers From 2018 That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe

1/01 Prepare for global debt bubble collapse in 2019 – Goldcore
1/01 FTSE 100 tumbles by 12.5% in 2018 – its biggest fall in a decade – Guardian
1/01 Looking forward to Dow 11,000 – Bear’s Lair
1/01 2019 market meltdown: what the new year brings – SRSrocco Report
1/01 Record outflow from US junk bond funds in 2018 – AFR

So, what is all this going to do for confidence?

Here is an article from Kunstler. You should read the whole thing. The newly Dem Controlled house will be in a full-on battle with Trump. They will NOT bother to address minor things like an economic collapse. What about the debt?
"Inflation is typically the choice of governments because it reduces the face value of debts while it allows government to pretend that it is taking action. In the end, you may have plenty of worthless money, which is no different from having not enough money that retains value. The latter was the main feature of the Great Depression.

So, inflation is the usual choice, but it also typically leads to incendiary resentment among the citizenry when they realize they’ve been played and it takes a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy a loaf of bread and a jar of peanut butter."****-nati...rgin-call-usa/

"Bulls and bears – both human and artificial – will fight to the death for the upper hand.

By mid-year, however, the bulls will have exhausted their resources. Shrewd investors will sell the multiple bounces leading up to the summer months, and go to cash and gold. About this time, the brief boon to businesses from President Trump’s tax cuts will be over. The economy will be en route to recession.

Predictive models based on faulty earnings estimates will be thrown out the window. Pre-programmed buying will morph to pre-programmed selling, and an abrupt collapse will be triggered. The bottom will drop out of the stock market in short order.

By October, as Wall Street and Washington scream for the Fed to do something, new experiments in ZIRP, NIRP, QE, and Fed equity purchases, will be rolled out with poise and confidence. Yet the Fed’s efforts to pump liquidity into the financial system will have little avail. Reality will be delivered to investors like buckets of ice water to the face.

An abrupt, yet destructive, bear market will extend into early 2020. When the dust clears, the S&P 500 will have decline by 60 percent from its record high. Yet that’s nothing. Treasury investors are in for much greater levels of capital destruction…"
"Moreover, we are 100 percent certain that 2019 will be the year that yields commence their long-term rise in earnest. After many years of being wrong about the end of the great Treasury bond bubble, it is about time we were right."
Evidence indicates that interest rates can never rise while the population is falling. How do you raise interest cost when wages are static and population is falling?
Pretty good article.
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