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Old 12-10-2018, 03:48 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,854
Political wars bringing down the economy

Trump has a long way to go. Know they enemy.

China's economic model ignores profit in the quest for market share and growth. This makes them particularly vulnerable to upsets and declines. Trump got a tax reduction here to buy some time for his attack on China. Capital outflows from the R.O.W. are inflows to America. Everyone knows that the effects of the tax decline will wear off going into 2019. As long as America looks more stable than other markets, that will buy some time. These inflows are raising all boats.

The Chinese boat is sinking.
"With that in mind, take a look at the chart for China’s banking sector. Not only is the bull market trendline broken, (blue line) but the chart has crashed an incredible 33%."

Europe is doing equally bad.
"The US bond market is over $20 trillion in size. And if you include junior debt instruments, it’s over $60 TRILLION in size.

And this whole mess is beginning to blow up as the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury, the single most important bond in the world, has broken out above its multi-decade trendline."
That is this graph,
If you compare the breakouts and reversals, the U.S. is doing much better. That is all it takes to attract capital.
Europe is too socialist and China is too exuberant (gambling). China knew that their export economy model would come to an end. They wanted to change to a domestic consumption model. China's EXCESS steel production capacity is equal to the total capacity of Europe and America combined. How are they ever going to absorb all their productivity into domestic consumption when their workforce shrinks by 1 million a year?

Teresa May figured that she would just shove a bad Brexit down the throats of Parliament and the people. Armstrong's model did NOT show any changes for Dec. 11. Sure enough, the votes is postponed. Here is a great Pic of May with a "Brexit" gun in her mouth.
So, while Britain doesn't share the Euro currency, the Pound is going down also, due to the Brexit turmoil. The British banks want unfettered access to European capital markets and May is too stupid to avoid painting herself into a corner.

As China goes down, OZ falls apart.
"Growth had been looking good recently. Economists were optimistic. But when the ABS put out the official figures they were shocked. This matters to all of us. It puts Australia deeper and deeper into our emergency footing.
The article reflects an exercise in hopium.
Armstrong, "As I have warned, the next two years are going to be an outright political siege warfare. Far more damage will be done to the United States and the world economy in this desperate attempt for the Democrats to retake the White House in 2020."
This is a good article on a possible impeachment.

Here is a good article on the Clinton Foundation by Armstrong. Keep in mind that a full-on war between the House and Senate will be very bad for the economy.
"The Clinton Foundation is the poster-child for political corruption and tax fraud. What we are about to witness is the start of a political war in the House before the handover to the Democrats in January.
If we look back on April 23, 2015, just two weeks after Hillary Clinton officially declared her presidential campaign, her staff sent out a message on the strategy to manipulate the Republicans into selecting the worse candidate.
Trump was absolutely certain to lose.
“Our hope is that the goal of a potential HRC campaign and the DNC would be one-in-the-same: to make whomever the Republicans nominate unpalatable to a majority of the electorate.”
She ignore the deplorables.

"Jennifer Palmieri, in the hacked emails revealed that Palmieri and other Clinton allies’ hold very low opinions of Catholics. Hillary’s staff said Catholics are “severely backwards”
Jerry Oppenheimer reported in his book State of the Union: Inside the Complex Marriage of Bill and Hillary Clinton (2000), that the night Bill unexpectedly lost his 1974 Arkansas congressional seat bid, Hillary shrieked at his campaign manager, “you ****ing Jew bastard.”
"Hillary was so shattered by the loss of her life’s dream to be the first woman president rather than what she could actually do for the country. Hillary refused to appear before her supporters. That was the most devastating thing any candidate had ever done in history."
Armstrong did 7+ years of hard time in prison. You can't scare him or shut him up. He knows that everybody important in finance reads him.

The dirt that comes out of the Clinton investigation will essentially will essentially make the Dems pathologically toxic. The Dems will control the House of Representatives. The HOUSE is responsible for originating all spending bills. So, while America presently attracts a lot of capital inflows, will this continue during the siege of Washington D.C ?
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