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Old 11-26-2018, 04:27 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
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Abundance without purchasing power,,,, no confidence = no kids

So, when will the crash go mainstream? How bad will it get? How long will it last? How many of the old folks will be cast out? How many millennials will opt for the slow suicide of drugs? How long will it last? WHAT could possibly bring us out of the crash?
Sorry but, I haven't got any good news for the short term. The entire system is based on physical growth and credit growth. The State is nothing but a corrupt tax farmer. The finance system is nothing but, thinly veiled robbery,,, through inflation. Our current system is going down in flames. There is nothing to replace it because we have never had this problem before in history. The world has always had larceny and corruption. It has never had industrialization and automation anywhere near this level.
Keep in mind that efficiency is the main focus of capitalism.

" In the 21st century, we are more quickly approaching capitalism’s paradox than expected.
Capitalism is working as intended. A constant exercise of finding the most efficient way to use scarce resources.
It is providing miracle abundance through increasingly efficient processes that raise the public standard of life for everyone. Yet this progress comes at the cost of replacing labor with automation (or globalization providing cheap labor) and in recent trends has been distributing this new found wealth unequally. If you fire all your workers so you can automate/relocate to a country with cheap labor, then no one will be able to buy what you produce. "

"This creates a paradox of abundance being created without anyone who can pay for it. This is dangerous because this begins to rip apart the mutually beneficial relationship between producer/consumer that holds our economy together."
"In terms of food, production and supply chain institutions have become so efficient that half of the food that America produces is thrown directly into the trash without ever reaching a mouth. This food abundance problem occurs simultaneously as 43+ million Americans every year live in hunger."
"The automation of moving humans, goods, and deliveries dramatically brings down the costs of travel and commerce, even advancing the possibility of a more sustainable access-economy. Yet simultaneously threatens to replace the jobs of over 5 million blue-collar Americans."
This brings down the cost of goods you buy while replacing the bi-weekly paycheck received by 6% of working Americans (8 Million people)

"Blockchain and smart contracts aim to remove intermediaries between individuals. But this also means a dip in many high-salaried jobs."
"Populism. A response to inequality.

This is already creating political polarization seen in the American Rust-Belt where this loss of production work (employment dropping from 18.9 million jobs to 12.2 million) has devastated towns and left millions in poverty and without a future they can believe in.
Capitalism is working as intended."
"Thus, to look at this paradox more objectively, it helps to look at how we got here. How did we go from our earliest tribal hunter/gather societies, where everyone is working together to fight for survival, to the modern economies of today, where decreasingly small percentage of the population focuses on these basic necessities for everyone. My favorite analysis of these transitions come from Marx’s Stages of Economic Development. Yet instead of ending with “communism”, my belief is that the incredible abundance created through capitalism creates the conditions for post-scarcity lifestyles and economies."

" “Slaves acquired by conquest built most of its bridges, roads and aqueducts and took jobs in farming, mining and construction. As this cheaper labor replaced Roman citizens, idle, unemployed, hungry people filled the capital.”
— Alice Schroder, Bloomberg"
"Private property is no longer a reserved right of the aristocracy, but rather a reward to those who are mindful towards market forces (efficiency). Price signals allow complex social interactions that allow anyone to specialize and become an expert in their domain, providing a wealth of services that would be impossible to organize by a centralized planner. Capitalism is by far the most superior global incentive to efficiently exploit scarce resources and services into abundance. "

" And just like previous socio-economic systems before us, our system has inner-contradictions which create unsustainable tensions. As business owners replace laborers with technology, wealth is concentrated amongst those who already have it. And if the laborers employed by these business owners are getting paid less (or fired), who’ll buy the products produced by these business owners? The paradox is these efficiencies make products and services more abundant than ever before, but decrease the ability to distribute this abundance and thus creates unsustainable wealth inequality."

"Every socio-economic transition is born with the infrastructure and knowledge of the system before it. A post-scarcity economy is no different. The internet, AI, and automation are shaped in the free market as much as these technologies disrupt the market."

In a true post-scarcity economy, everything would be free. The only thing to buy would be SEX & attention.
Captain Capitalism: Why Post-Scarcity Economics is Scary
The powers that be will definitely try to hang on to their advantages. Money, interest, finance, control, etc. BUT, the worker has been replaced by CHEAP labor in the form of a "robot". There is no going back on that one. Automation is not going to diminish without some kind of cataclysm that knocks us back 150 years.

All this robbery by the State and banks to keep us working is losing effectiveness as more and more automation is introduced. As we get poorer and poorer, we must reduce expenses. We stop having children. As we cut down reproduction, economic activity falls further. As it falls further, we get squeezed harder and, reduce the birth rate even more..

The current system is all based on collecting interest on money loaned. What if that can no longer be done?

As we get more squeezed, we further cut the birth rate.
Yes, this has a feedback loop.
So, we can't possibly grow the economy with a falling population. The interest rate is tied to the fertility rate.
What happens to an economy that is stuck at 0% interest? This also involves a feedback loop. As the economy shrinks, the fertility rate shrinks. China is at 1.6 and nothing will convince them to have more kids.
Japan shows that there is no escape when confidence is lost and nobody believes in having children.
The finance system can never recover in it's present configuration. There will be years of resistance to unfolding any new configuration
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