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Old 11-23-2018, 04:00 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,840
oil notes,,,Powell & chicken,,, social credit in China

Oil is so important to finance that every little move in the price of oil has major repercussions in finance. Here are a few notes.
"Oil and gas companies lost $1 trillion in oil price slide. The global oil and gas sector has lost $1 trillion in value over a 40-day period since October after crude prices fell by about $20 per barrel. U.S.-listed companies in the S&P 500 shed $240 billion."
"Saudi petrochemical firm. Previously, Aramco had considered a $40 billion bond sale for the acquisition, but has rejected the idea because of the financial disclosures that would be required for the sale"

"Producing shale gas in the UK may not ever be economic because of ample supplies on the continent and a growing source of supply in the form of LNG from Qatar, Norway and the UK. Beyond that, renewables are steadily falling in cost, down 50 percent since 2013."
Damn free energy.

"The firm apparently suffered a “catastrophic loss” by wrong-way bets on prices. Oil fell by 7 percent on November 13 and natural gas spiked by 18 percent on November 14. Individual investors, which apparently had to have made a minimum investment of $250,000, are set to lose their money."
Damn free energy
"Prices for Western Canada Select have dropped as low as $14 per barrel, as pipelines carrying oil from Alberta are full. "

"According to the report, top oil and gas companies jointly spent around 1 percent of their 2018 budgets on clean energy. The study comes as European oil and gas heavy weights such as Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP and others have in recent years accelerated spending on wind and solar power as well as battery technologies. The companies’ increased green investment shows that they are seeking a larger role in global efforts to slash carbon emissions to battle global warming, the report added. "

Side note;
Earth is Cooling…No it's Warming - NASA Earth Observatory

"ExxonMobil, the world’s largest traded publicly owned oil company, for its part, was heavily criticized over its slower move to embrace the concerns of climate change. "
"Also, earlier this year ExxonMobil announced a $500 million joint venture (JV) with Synthetic Genomics to genetically engineer photosynthetic algae to produce renewable crude from sunlight and carbon dioxide"

"U.S. shale is not new to pipeline bottlenecks. The Permian basin has suffered from steep discounts this year, with WTI in Midland trading as much as $20 per barrel below WTI in Houston at times. Meanwhile, the midstream bottleneck is especially acute in Canada, where the inability to build a major pipeline out of Alberta has led to price discounts that have reached as high as $50 per barrel. Western Canada Select fell as low as $15 per barrel in recent days after a U.S. federal judge blocked construction on the Keystone XL pipeline, dealing yet another blow to Canada’s oil industry."

"Crude oil stockpiles in China rose by 29.09 million barrels last month from a month before and are likely to continue up, S&P Global Platts calculations have suggested. The inventory build was a result of rising imports combined with lower refinery activity,"
Yep, China is slowing down.

Everybody in the world is wondering when Powell is going to fire up the printing presses and save the financial world.
11/23 The Fed finally blinks – Macro Tourist
"It is clear to me the Federal Reserve was intent on raising rates until something broke, and that last week enough things “broke” that they finally blinked."
"I know it seems like a subtle distinction, but the market has interpreted this as the Fed blinking."
So, he interprets some comment as "the FED will start printing". A lot of his wishful thinking is based on the extreme volatility in the oil markets. The next FOMC meeting will tell us if the FED is blinking or not. Powell is on a mission to do a slow crash of markets so that they will not suffer a fast crash. Trump is on a mission to destroy China. Since capital can instantly flee and flow to any place in the world, ALL CBs provide liquidity to all markets.
When the FED withdraws liquidity, this subtracts liquidity from most markets. Powell is playing a game of "chicken" with Chinese markets hoping to suffer far less damage than China.

Absent the enormous stimulus and liquidity from the FED,,, and to a certain extent the BOJ and ECB, China has had to go back to serious printing.
Keep in mind that the ECB claims that it is still on track to terminate bond purchases at the end of the year. Willingly or not, the BOJ, ECB, and BOE are joining with the FED to gang up on China. China does not have a developed safety net as opposed to the West and Japan.

How China Stays Stable Despite 500 Protests Every Day - The Atlantic
Jan 5, 2012 - China saw 180,000 protests, riots, and mass demonstrations in 2010 alone
China: Strikes and protest numbers jump 20% | Financial Times
Jul 14, 2016 -
Social unrest in China: A threat to regime legitimacy and the economy ...

The West is hoping to get a big revolution going in China. Their business model of growth, not profit is far more vulnerable than the Western model of profit before people.
Starting with TARP, the banks transferred their risk and bad paper to the State. The State is soon to collapse (Armstrong). When the default cascade hits, China will be in a very poor position to hold on to control. They have instituted a draconian / Orwellian system called social credit

The odd reality of life under China's all-seeing credit score system ...
China's social credit score system is doomed to fail | Financial Times
Pushing The Ethical Boundaries Of Big Data: A Look At China's Social ...
China Turns Big Data into Big Brother - MIT Technology Review

They know that the crash is coming. They are betting on a lockdown of every individual.
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