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Old 10-26-2018, 04:24 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,786
Stocks are crashing and, Powell is on the sidelines

Armstrong, "We do not necessarily have to run and hide in a cave. I will let you know if it really is that bad. What we are looking at is the collapse of governmental systems. That does mean you have to run and hide someplace. Yes, that is possible in certain areas. "
Keep in mind that 51% of Americans receive a check from GOV
"So, no need to run and hide. We are looking at an economic implosion. Yes, that will result in civil unrest and that will most likely be focused in the big cities. So the risk would be greater for someone living in LA or NYC rather than in the suburbs. "

Notes on the bear market;
"uncertain how much lower the drop can take the market, which is only where it is thanks to trillions of liquidity created out of thin air by central banks - liquidity which is now being drained at an accelerating pace."
1. It’s (almost) officially a global equity bear market…MSCI equal-weighted global index down 19.6% from intraday high Jan 29th.

2. Asset carnage cross-market & has infected US tech leadership; since the January "big top"…

Annualized loss in US Treasuries (-9.7%) & IG bonds (-4.0%) 3rd largest since 1970
18 out of 21 commodities in corrections of >10% (lumber -53%, copper -23%)
FAANG stocks -21% from highs, semiconductors -22% from high
1742 of 2767 global stocks, 919 of 1150 EM stocks, 1164 of 1899 NYSE stocks in bear markets.
On profits: global EPS growth peaked March @ 23% YoY, it’s now 16% (ex. US it’s dropped to 10%)
63% of global stocks in bear market (80% in EM, 61% in US – Table 2)
Crash watch: $45tn of systemically risky shadow banking assets (source BIS), of which 72% (in bond ETFs, mutual funds, credit HFs, bank loan funds) are vulnerable to forced selling

You get the idea. Stocks are crashing. Previously, the FED always had your back. You could ALWAYS buy the dips. If Powell refuses to carry on what Greenspan started, there just won't be any rallies. Trump appears quite upset about this. One could assume that he doesn't want markets to blow before the election.

10/25 Google parent Alphabet’s shares plunge after missing revenues – Zero Hedge
No earnings and, NO Greenspan "put" means that it is time to pull out.
10/25 Will Fed capitulation forestall stock market crash? – Peter Schiff
THAT is a hypothetical question in all senses.
10/25 Spain’s mortgage market seizes up, bank stocks sink, legal uncertainty reigns – WS
This is just the beginning of market seize-ups.
10/25 ECB sticks to stimulus exit despite “bunch of uncertainties” – Reuters
Bond buyers deserted European markets a long time ago. If the ECB stops buying, there will be NO BID.
10/25 It’s too late to prepare UK borders for no-deal Brexit – Independent
Stock up on popcorn before the big event.

"These tremors are warnings that the “dollar” system’s decay is reaching critical points. The mainstream will tender that this is really no big deal, just a tantrum of spoiled markets unwilling to easily treat the coming end of ZIRP and accommodation; that is simply and flat out false. There is a systemic liquidity problem that is and has been fatal, exposed to a greater degree by the continued withdrawal of eurodollar bank participation"

A rising gold price is often considered an inflationary, or reflationary, sign. In this case, however, the jump especially during that particular two-week period was hardly of the same variety. It was raw, unadulterated fear permeating the entire global system. Something snapped and though it was never written into the conventional record it still happened all the same.

It was in this window that America finally noticed “overseas turmoil” in their 401k’s."
Then, as if to prove these points, the process was repeated in almost exactly the same fashion a second time in a matter of mere months. And to further demonstrate how clueless and useless central bankers are and can be, the Federal Reserve actually kicked off its “rate hike” program in the middle of all this still at that late date believing in that earlier “strong” economy fairy tale."
"This second deflationary wave ultimately proved more devastating than the first, even if Wall Street never fully accounted for it. In Asia as in other far-flung economies, the eurodollar damage was so severe that they still haven’t recovered from it even after suffering 2008-levels of contraction and shrinking. "
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