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Old 10-23-2018, 02:31 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
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Slow unwind in China,,, Armstrong

The unwinding of artificial markets, CHINA.
" the summer of 2015, when worries about Chinese growth and extreme corporate opacity had shares in virtual free-fall. In just over three weeks, Shanghai stocks lost 30%,
The exodus of liquidity had Beijing taking a “kitchen sink” approach – literally tossing everything it could think of at short-sellers. Officials slashed interest rates, loosened leverage requirements, bought shares, imposed capital controls, tweaked margin-trading regulations, suspended initial public offerings, allowed punters to put up homes as collateral.
Despite those Herculean efforts, Shanghai shares are now below 2015 levels. The ongoing $3 trillion rout has the Shanghai Composite Index at the lowest since November 2014.

"China might make this year’s 6.5% growth target, but at what cost in the long run?
The yuan’s drop by that same amount – 6.4% –
Xi is investing trillions of dollars in a “Made in China 2025” scheme to dominate software, artificial intelligence, renewable energies, robotics, self-driving vehicles, high-speed rail, pharmaceuticals, you name it.
"due for a reckoning."
Yes, China is a unique development specimen. That will happen when the most populous nation becomes the No. 2 economy well before per-capital income decisively tops $10,000 in nominal terms. "
There you have it. Wages are just too low for it to escape it's position as an export economy. Wages are too low everywhere. The current minimum Chinese salary is U.S. $ 270 per month.
Why China Inc is still stuck in 2015 | Asia Times

Armstrong, "Yes. In all honesty, it was the Debt Crisis that ended the Roman Republic. There was a Sovereign Debt Crisis during the Roman Republic period resulted in a dictatorship and a debt default."
"A period of excessive concentration of money and large profits came to an end with the rise of the Social War of 91-88BC"
"Therefore, we find that the debt crisis was correlated with a separatist movement – which we are beginning to see worldwide starting in Europe, but will eventually become a contagion in the United States as the conflict between left and right erupts after the November elections."
How bad will this conflict get?

"The debt crisis continued and then in 86BC, the government was compelled into default. This is when the Valerian Law came into play and this remitted 75% of all debts. The State debts were deflated on and reduced to 25%."
Déjà vu all over again?
"So we must understand that there was a brewing debt crisis in Rome and the oligarchy was determined to keep power at any cost."

10/22 Netflix to sell $2 billion of junk bonds to fund content – MarketWatch
Netflix is burning through billions in cash - Yahoo Finance

Interesting article from Armstrong on pole shift.

Reportedly, the current mini-boom should be attributed to obummer

Just in case that you need a reminder, most politicians are too incompetent to survive in the private sector. Once they get in and collect a salary, the next most important thing is to lock in a good pension.

So, we have generally incompetent people running the legal framework of the country. What could go wrong?

"In April 2008, a longtime investment adviser named Chris Tobe was appointed to the board of trustees that oversees the Kentucky Retirement Systems, the pension fund that provides for the state’s firefighters, police, and other government employees. Within a year, his fellow trustees named Tobe to the six-person committee that oversees its investments, becoming the only member of the committee with any actual investment experience. It was an experiment in fiduciary responsibility that ended badly. “I started asking questions when things weren’t sounding right,” Tobe said. “And a secret session was held where they voted to kick me off.”
"Several weeks after he was removed, the remaining members of the committee approved a $200 million investment in a hedge fund called Arrowhawk Capital Partners. "

"In the years since that big Arrowhawk play, Kentucky’s public pensions have descended into financial crisis, "
Tobe had never heard of Arrowhawk, and he quickly figured out why: Arrowhawk was a new fund whose first investor was the Kentucky Retirement Systems,
"the staff had steered the investment committee in 2009 to a startup fund with no track record."
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