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Old 09-21-2018, 02:56 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,538
Big party in October,,,hot money in RE

I'll start wit Armstrong because he has the most pressing news.
"This is what the Reversal System was designed for. To be objective in the midst of total chaos and uncertainty. November is shaping up as a Panic Cycle in the Euro, not in the share market. In the Pound, we have a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle in October. "
"We are looking at everything starting to get crazy in sovereign debt issues globally beginning in October. With the Dow Jones Industrials now making a new high for the year, the Fed will be looking more comfortable about raising rates to help the pension fund crisis that is brewing. So pay attention to interest rates in October!!!!!!!!"

"There is complete political chaos everywhere you turn. This is not simply supporting or bashing Trump. We are fooling here with the very foundation of CONFIDENCE in the governmental system. "
" What I mean as to this is the worst I have personally seen in 40 years is that we have uncertainty absolutely everywhere globally. There is no safe place for capital to hide. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...t-in-40-years/

"ANSWER: Regardless of your political persuasion be it for or against any of these political issues, the importance is really the impact upon CONFIDENCE. If you are for or against Trump, we still have one thing in common. We just want stability and some sense of the future to bank on."
The deep state is absolutely determined to drag down Trump regardless of the fallout. I very much doubt that they are aware of just how much blowback will occur.
" If Italy pulls the cord to get out, the Euro cannot survive. What I hear from Behind the Curtain is that the ECB may be forced to cut its bond purchases by 50% and there are even those demanding Quantitative Easing MUST end by the end of the year."
Will lega Nord and 5 Star back down on their new budget? I doubt it.

" So, there is no point in getting all uptight for or against Trump, Theresa May, or any Juncker in Brussels. The computer does not show that ANYONE will be able to reverse the direction we are headed into. This is merely our fate. we have nobody on either side of the aisle who has a clue of what needs to be done or what is coming around the corner. So, look at this objectively. This is about understanding what is behind the trading strategy. That’s it. Nothing more. Nobody can save the day. We have to save ourselves. "
PLANT A GARDEN
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...of-volatility/

OK, Armstrong is showing tremendous panic in European sovereign bond markets.
Here is a short article on sovereign bonds, https://gainspainscapital.com/2018/0...to-its-needle/
"Because the entire move in the financial markets since 2008 has been based on Central Banks cornering the bond market. In the simplest of terms, Central Banks dealt with the crash in one major asset class (housing) by creating a bubble in another even more senior asset class (government bonds).

Because these bonds are the backbone of the current financial system, (the senior-most asset class), when they went into a bubble, everything followed."

Nomi Prins, "From 179% before the financial crisis, the global debt-to-GDP ratio has jumped to 217% today.
Eliminating all that debt is the ultimate solution for avoiding another crisis."
If you eliminate the debt, you ELIMINATE the money supply.
"Central bank credit, or what I call dark money, tended to go to the wealthy and into financial assets.

“Dark money” comes from central banks. In essence, central banks “print” money or electronically fabricate money by buying bonds or stocks. " "That dark money goes to the biggest private banks and financial institutions first. From there, it spreads out in seemingly infinite directions affecting different financial assets in different ways."
"What all of this means that the Fed will either stop its current tightening program, re-invoke QE, or get its central bank allies to do the same when necessary. It means that further rounds of quantitative easing (through various dark money ploys), in addition to all the help they’ve received, will continue. The banks can see no other option."
Everybody assumes that the FED will hyper-print again. I am NOT convinced that this will happen.
https://dailyreckoning.com/10-years-...uilding-again/

" the net worth of US households rose to an all-time high $106.9 trillion, increasing for 11 consecutive quarters and up $2.2 trillion as a result of an estimated $559 billion increase in real estate values, "
YES, they have driven RE out of reach for millions.
"Total household assets in Q2 rose $2.3 trillion to $122.7 trillion, while at the same time total liabilities, i.e., household borrowings, rose by only $132 billion from $15.6 trillion to $15.7 trillion, the bulk of which was $10.2 trillion in home mortgages. "
All of this increase was due to speculators buying up housing with hot money. The owner-occupancy rate has not gone up.
Tyler Durden Blog | Household Wealth Hits A Record $107 Trillion... There Is Just One Catch | Talkmarkets

9/21 Japanese exchange hack results in 6,000 bitcoin stolen – MarketWatch
9/20 Italy’s 5-Star keeps up pressure on economy minister over budget – Reuters
Lega Nord has a gun to one side of his head. The ECB has a gun to the other side of his head.
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