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Old 08-23-2018, 04:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,334
Alternative to SWIFT,,,Chinese dragon has arthritis

Germany has a $1 trillion account surplus. The rest of Europe has a $1 trillion deficit. The Germans are getting very nervous because, even though SWIFT is based in Brussels, it is under quite a bit of control of America. EVERYONE wants to escape the dollar,,,, mostly because of the politicians. Germany is calling for a new global settlement mechanism that does NOT include America. I can't say that I blame them.

Keep in mind that China, et al have an independent system already.
SWIFT is just a payment and clearing system, NOT an investment.
"The average daily value of payment messages on SWIFT is estimated to be above €6 trillion"
It makes sense to use CIPS when the East is dealing with the East.

There is also a widely used banking identification system.
All of this depends on perception.
Everybody believes that there are legitimate buyers of American treasury bonds. This is highly doubtful. Belgium is reported as buying billions. Last time that Belgium was reported to be buying U.S,. bonds, it didn't have ANY U.S. dollars with which to buy them. The the tax havens are buying them. That would be mostly C.I.A. and who knows if the sales are even legitimate.
So, the dollar goes up.
Super Mario Draghi was the only buyer of State debt of many EU States. So, that is out in the open.
The BOJ is buying all the state debt AND TONS of stocks. That is out in the open.
" New yuan loans stood at 1.45 trillion yuan, versus a projected 1.275 trillion yuan and 1.84 trillion yuan the previous month. Broad M2 money supply rose 8.5%,"
How can the Yuan be perceived as a competitor to the dollar if China prints bazillions AND, the FED prints almost nothing?
The FED doesn't need to print because investors loan it money by the truckload. The U.S. dollar is the best currency because,,, it is perceived as being the safest currency.
8/23 Malaysia cancels two big Chinese projects, fearing they’ll bankrupt the country – WaPo

The better the dollar looks, the sooner that offshore dollar-denominated debt crashes.
A new reference for judging the stock market.
China pumped out bazillions of Yuan to get the Belt & Road initiatve rolling. Now, it is finding that unlimited credit creation to help out numerous States is getting too expensive.

All the major Central banks appear to be tightening. The graphs on this page are very good but, they are blurred. You have to open them in another tab.

A case of cause & effect.
Unions were created to protect the working man. Unfortunately, they protect him whether he is bad or good at work. The pipe fitters union is known for having a lot of druggies and deadbeats. Some of them do terrible work. Stick welding pipeline takes a lot of concentration. Protesters blocked the Keystone pipeline construction because the contracted company had a TERRIBLE record of faulty pipelines.
The Alaskan pipeline had to have major sections dug up and repaired because the X-ray QC people faked a lot of inspections. 1100 welds were bad. 36 of them could not be repaired and had to have a section cut out. These welds were buried and under rivers etc.
Keep in mind that 50% of the welds were done by sub-arc in Valdez.

So, America pipeline welders have a terrible reputation. The Pacific Northwest needs crude oil but, the governors refuse to have American pipefitters build a pipeline across their State. Driven by this, Washington and Oregon must import Russian oil.

8/23 Fed says more interest rate increases coming – NYT
We get to find where the death cross comes in. Reportedly at about 3.25--3.50%
8/23 Italian gov’t bond sell-off limits room for populist spending programs – FS Italian bonds are selling off AND Draghi says that he won't be buying any more after the end of the year. The new populist GOV is going to be in quite a squeeze.
8/23 Standards go out the window as employers struggle to fill jobs – SafeHaven
10,000 boomers retire every day and, the skills gap gets worse.
8/22 Longest bull market ever will be followed by record breaking bear – Mish
8/22 UK household debt balloons to new record – Independent

You Brits are not doing very well.
"More men in the UK have died by suicide in the past year than all British soldiers fighting in all wars since 1945."

Glyco-phosphate has contaminated 20,000 sq. miles of America farmland. Now it seems that we are going to finish off the job with Fracking.
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