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Old 08-18-2018, 11:37 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,331
sovereign debt Kabuki theater

8/18 S&P cuts Turkey credit rating deeper into junk territory – CNBC
All the big funds are required to follow the ratings agencies. If something is rated too low, they must sell. The plug gets pulled and, it is a self-reinforcing trip down the credit drain.
Of course, fallout is to be expected.
8/18 Turkish tremors will cause shocks in Britain – Times
8/18 Venezuela launches crypto-pegged forex rate, devaluing by 96 percent – GATA
That's not much of a peg.

"Large companies dedicated 93% of their earnings to shareholders between 2007 and 2016 – a shift from the early 1980s, when they sent less than half their revenue to shareholders and spent the rest on employees"
Elizabeth Warren wants to force companies to raise wages by law.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...hest-companies
Thierry Meyssan wants the State to seize transnational companies.
Seize the transnational corporations to rebuild Syria?
I just don't have faith in either idea.

So investors have abandoned the sovereign debt of several States, Turkey, Greece, Argentina, Poland, Italy, et al.
REPORTEDLY, investors are buying up U.S. debt.

Japan and China are cutting way back. China MUST keep some U.S. debt so that they can sell dollars and buy Yuan if the Yuan is attacked.
https://www.rt.com/business/436193-j...-debt-dumping/
"According to the Institute of International Finance’s latest Global Debt Monitor, the amount of debt held in the world rose by the biggest amount in two years during the first quarter of 2018. It grew by $8 trillion to hit a new all-time high of $247 trillion"
“It is all about taking money from us and transferring it into government pockets. And then, taking money from government pockets, and transferring it into the hands of the elite. It’s a game that’s been going on for generations"

"But over the same period, the US gross national debt, fired up by a stupendous spending binge, soared by a breath-taking $1.36 trillion. So who bought this $1.36 trillion in new debt?"
"the holdings of China and Japan have edged down. At the end of 2015, their combined holdings amounted to nearly 13% of the total US debt. By the end of June, this was down to 10.4% (green line), with Japan’s holdings (blue line) now down to 4.9% of total US government debt, and China’s stash (red line) down to 5.6%:"
Perhaps not so ironically: Of the 12 largest holders of US Treasuries, after China and Japan, seven are tax havens for foreign corporate and/or individual entities (bold):

Brazil: $300 billion
Ireland: $300 billion
UK (“City of London”): $274 billion
Switzerland: $236 billion
Luxembourg: $220 billion
Cayman Islands: $197 billion… down from $250 billion in April 2017!
Hong Kong: $192 billion
Saudi Arabia: $165 billion
Taiwan: $163 billion
Belgium: $155 billion
India: $147 billion
Singapore: $122 billion

"By the end of June, the US gross national debt had reached $21.21 trillion, up $1.36 trillion from June last year"
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/15/wh...ast-12-months/
Since the capital inflows are all just pixels, the Treasury can report ANY amount of inflows that it wants. America is attracting global capital because of the apparent health of U.S. sovereign debt. I seriously doubt that the reported capital inflows are legitimate.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...C0%2C0%2C0%2C1

Armstrong claims that real estate will make it through the reset. This isn't a very smart claim. Other than the house that you live in, all RE is worth as much as somebody else will pay for it.
"The crisis that unfolds is the collapse in the mortgage market. Then we will see a deleveraging of real estate. However, that said, real estate makes the transition as a hedge during a reset. For example, during the German hyperinflation that led to a currency reset, that new currency that was issued was backed by real estate – not gold. Keep in mind that as the currency declines, then the repayment cost of a mortgage declines. On the one hand, mortgages will be unavailable"
What is the value of your vacation home if nobody can get a mortgage?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...-to-the-reset/

"Britain has NEVER benefited from the EU. Your economic growth has declined ever since joining back in 1973"
"the computer pinpointed the crisis in the Euro would begin during the 3rd quarter here in 2018 where we had both a Directional Change and the beginning of a Panic Cycle."
"Note that there is a turning point showing up in the 1st quarter next year but the big one will be the 3rd quarter 2019."
"As far as price against the dollar, there is support technically in the 92 area. The very worst support is at 53, but that does not seem likely absent war in Europe."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...rvative-split/

"The Turkish Minister of Finance Berat Albayrak, Erdogan’s son-in-law, is trying to assure foreign investors that he will implement strict fiscal discipline and structural reforms. He has come up with a new slogan saying that Turkey will “emerge even stronger” from the crisis. There are almost 4,000 investors in Turkey who have lost a fortune based on the currency alone"
"What Erdogan fails to see is that the collapse in the currency is not simply black and white numbers. This is a collapse in confidence in him personally."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...re-his-people/
Erdogan has no friends and, too many people read Armstrong.
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