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Old 06-25-2018, 03:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,492
How long has this cycle been extended?

How long is the average economic cycle? Well, it averages 10--12 years. The banking system became far too crowded. Everyone was clamoring to rent out their wet-ink money. The tech bubble crashed because everybody was throwing money at enterprises that had no earnings. The housing bubble crashed because everybody was throwing money at borrowers who could not pay it back.
John Hussman writes about how this cycle has become hyper-extended by the free-money FED. He has been very wrong about timing on investments because he was timing the cycle as if it were a normal cycle of 10--12 years. He readily admits as much. NOBODY thought that the FED would inject so much nor, extend the cycle so much. Excellent article if you want a good understanding of where we are in this new, "extended" financial world.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180604/

"With just 42 days trading days left until the S&P500 bull market becomes the longer of all time, Morgan Stanley's chief cross-asset strategist, Andrew Sheets, writes that investors are now more sanguine about how much time they have until the next recession than at any point since 2010. "We’re 8 ˝ years into an expansion, and many investors finally are finally confident that there is plenty of time left on the clock."
"All this is taking place against a backdrop in which key market elements are vastly different from a year ago"

"Presenting, Bank of America's Charts of Darkness"
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa.../darkness1.jpg
This is a good article enumerating the various peaks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...apocalypse-dow

Technical traders has a good article.
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/...be-setting-up/
Bill Bonner has a questionable article where he speculates that GOV will get rid of both paper currency and the private banking system. I'm doubtful.
https://bonnerandpartners.com/the-fi...e-war-on-cash/
ZH claims that China is doing a stealth devaluation of the Yuan as part of the trade war. Keep in mind that; as the dollar goes up, it is much more difficult to service dollar-denominated debt.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...C0%2C0%2C0%2C1

Various writers speculate that China could dump it's U.S. treasury debt and crash American markets. This would cause the Yuan to rise when China wants it to fall.
https://www.rt.com/business/430645-t...s-debt-keiser/

American infrastructure is falling apart. The money goes to the military.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...t-2019-w521788
Much of it goes to the safety net also and, that is being steadily cut back. Military spending rises and Social Security spending falls.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/21/soci...udy-shows.html
Trump is further stirring things up with China.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/25/trum...wsj-repor.html
So, it IS different this time. The economic cycle and the 1/2 cycle have been extended.
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